World Cup

[Stressedlines]

In a match in europe, European teams tend to do quite well in comparison anyways That isnt any type of superiority, that is just historical fact

I think only 1 non Euro team has won a WC in Europe, and it was a LONG time ago if I am remembering correctly.

This year is no different 4 European teams

[Stressedlines]

actually, as I said that, I think in general World Cup, the continent hosting it tends to do better than the other side. Americas have always favored South American teams, and Europe has always favored European teams

Belgium won, and fluke or not, they still won Russia didnt deserve to beat Spain, but they did, cuz the best team dont always win T

[Hellenic Riot]

Belgium's defence is poor, but so is Brazil's. Belgium rely on outscoring the opposition, and the tactical changes Martinez made worked really well to nullify Brazil (unusual given Martinez showed absolutely zero tactical flexibility at Everton) - Chadli on the left instead of Carrasco shut down a lot of space, and having Fellaini meant Belgium were able to concede tactical fouls and not be worried about Brazilian set pieces. If Brazil had been a team of 11 players, instead of 10 players and an Olympic diver, they might've been able to win - but Neymar was utterly irrelevant, and Brazil were so focused on him that Belgium had a pretty comfortable win. It's no surprise that Brazil's best chances involved Coutinho rather than Neymar. And if Hazard had been at De Bruyne's level that night, Belgium would've hammered the weak Brazilian defence.

I don't think it's Eurosnobbery to say that Rest of the World teams have greatly underperformed at this World Cup - but as shown below, that isn't really a surprise. Uruguay are the one exception, as I'm pretty confident that had Cavani been fit they could've beaten France for sure - Stuani was just nowhere near his calibre on the counter and forced Uruguay to play more attacking than they were used to. Japan were surprisingly strong, too, and Senegal were unlucky not to get out of their group.

But the rest of them? Peru were hyped to heck and were really poor. Colombia had to drop to hacking and fouling because of their inability to actually create anything - Quintero aside. Mexico looked great beating Germany, but then somehow got torn apart by Sweden and were comfortably beaten by Brazil. Argentina were appalling - they did well against France because the French didn't stick a solid defence in front of Messi, but the Argentinian midfield and defence were utter jokes, and France play best against open teams - I expect a high scoring semi final between Belgium and France as a result, as both have weak defences but top quality attacks. Teams that actually played a strong defence found shutting Argentina down very easy - Croatia slaughtered them, Iceland held them, and Nigeria almost did too.

Egypt were another massively hyped team that turned out to be exceedingly weak (Salah's injury was extremely unfortunate, and I'm sure they would've done better if he had been fully fit, but he couldn't make up for their abysmal defending), but there were a lot of disappointments from teams which had performed really well in the last World Cup and/or in Qualifying - like Peru, Colombia, Costa Rica, Morocco and South Korea (Aside from their win over the hilariously atrocious Germans).

But at the end of the day, it does seem perfectly normal that European nations perform strongly in World Cups hosted in Europe, while in World Cups outside of Europe the rest of the world tends to perform better, for whatever reason. If you look at the last few World Cups (European World Cups are bolded), you can see this in action:

2018 (Russia): 2 Quarter Finalists (Uruguay & Brazil), and 3 out in the second round (Mexico, Argentina, Colombia).

Advanced from the groups: 5/16 (31.25%)
Advanced to the Quarters: 2/8 (25%)
Advanced to the Semis: 0%


2014 (Brazil): Argentina runners up, Brazil in the semis prior to the most hilarious match in history, Colombia & Costa Rica in the Quarters, and Chile, Uruguay, Mexico, Nigeria, Algeria, and the USA also advancing from the Group Stages.

Advanced from the group: 10/16 (62.5%)
Advanced to the Quarters: 4/8 (50%)
Advanced to the semis: 2/4 (50%)
Advanced to the final: 1/2 (50%)

2010 (South Africa): Uruguay semis. Paraguay, Argentina, Ghana, Brazil Quarters. Japan, South Korea, USA, Mexico, Chile second round.

Advanced from the group: 10/16 (62.5%)
Advanced to the Quarters: 5/8 (62.5%)
Advanced to the Semis: 1/4 (25%)
Advanced to the final: 0%

2006 (Germany): Brazil & Argentina Quarters. Ghana, Australia, Ecuador, Mexico second round.

Advanced from the group: 6/16 (37.5%)
Advanced to the Quarters: 2/8 (25%)
Advanced to the Semis: 0%


2002 (Japan & South Korea): Brazil Winners, South Korea semi finals, Senegal & the USA Quarters. Paraguay, Mexico, Japan second round.

Advanced from the group: 7/16 (43.75%)
Advanced to the Quarters: 4/8 (50%)
Advanced to the Semis: 2/8 (50%)
Advanced to the Final: 1/2 (50% and Victorious)

1998 (France): Brazil runners up, Argentina quarter finals. Chile, Paraguay, Nigeria, Mexico second round.

Advanced from the group: 6/16 (37.5%)
Advanced to the Quarters: 2/8 (25%)
Advanced to the Semis: 1/4 (25%)
Advanced to the Final: 1/2 (50%)


So, on average in a World Cup in Europe, the non-European countries have done the following:

Advanced from the Groups: 5.66 (35.42%)
Advanced to the Quarters: 2 (25%)
Advanced to the Semis: 0.33 (16.66%)
Advanced to the Final: 0.33 (16.66%)

As opposed to World Cups hosted outside of Europe:

Advanced from the Groups: 9 (56.25%)
Advanced to the Quarters: 4.33 (54.16%)
Advanced to the Semis: 1.66 (83.33%)
Advanced to the Final: 0.66 (66.66%)

So comparing the two:
Roughly 21% more non-European teams advance from the Group Stage in non-European World Cups.
More than double the amount of non-European teams advance to the Quarter Finals in non-European World Cups.
Non-European teams are 5x as likely to advance to the Semi Finals in a World Cup hosted outside of Europe, and twice as likely to make the final.

So all in all, it's not really a surprise that non-European teams haven't performed well at this World Cup. I'm sure they will be a force to be reckoned with in Qatar 2022, but for whatever reason, European teams just perform better in the familiar surroundings of European World Cups than they do outside of Europe.

[Ogion]

Yes, European middle tier teams fare a lot better in Europe. Familiar surroundings, more fans, and that makes for more favorable calls as well. This pattern goes back even before 1998. I kind of would have expected it to start to fall apart, but hasn't. After all, most of the ROW players play and live in Europe now, so it isn't like it's not familiar to them. Dunno. Definitely pattern, but not clear what drives it. Maybe it's having a lesser culture shock playing outside Europe, rather than an advantage in Europe

Brazil had a bad defense? I have no notion what you're even remotely basing that on. They've still surrendered the fewest goals of any team through the quarterfinals. Coming in, they had the best defense in the tournament. They surrendered 6 goals in 23 matches including qualifying, which isn't some whimpy UEFA group, but a real league. Belgium got exceptionally lucky, in getting the own goal, in scoring in one of their three shots from distance, and in having Courtois tie the World Cup record for most saves in 90 minutes (ironically set by Tim Howard against Belgium). This notion that Brazil is all about Neymar is clearly a European bit of nonsense. I'm guessing you didn't watch a single Brazil qualifier? Yeah. Thought so. Neymar was actaully not involved in most attacks, which predominantly came, as others have noted, though Willian, Coutinho, Paulinho, and to some degree Marcelo. Brazil scored 8 goals, from six players. It was pretty evenly spread among the attack. Indeed, it was more balanced than in 2014, frankly, because Tite is far better coach.

I have to say the amount of completely ill-informed comments is kind of astonishing.

[Ogion]

In a match in europe, European teams tend to do quite well in comparison anyways That isnt any type of superiority, that is just historical fact

I think only 1 non Euro team has won a WC in Europe, and it was a LONG time ago if I am remembering correctly.

This year is no different 4 European teams

Yes, Brazil in 1958 in Sweden. Germany is the only European team to win in the Americas, and Spain the only other European team to win outside of Europe.

[Ogion]

Yes, European middle tier teams fare a lot better in Europe. Familiar surroundings, more fans, and that makes for more favorable calls as well. This pattern goes back even before 1998.

I kind of would have expected it to start to fall apart, but hasn't. After all, most of the ROW players play and live in Europe now, so it isn't like it's not familiar to them. Dunno. Definitely pattern, but not clear what drives it. Maybe it's having a lesser culture shock playing outside Europe, rather than an advantage in Europe

Brazil had a bad defense? I have no notion what you're even remotely basing that on. They've still surrendered the fewest goals of any team through the quarterfinals. Coming in, they had the best defense in the tournament. They surrendered 6 goals in 23 matches including qualifying, which isn't some whimpy UEFA group, but a real league. Belgium got exceptionally lucky, in getting the own goal, in scoring in one of their three shots from distance, and in having Courtois tie the World Cup record for most saves in 90 minutes (ironically set by Tim Howard against Belgium). This notion that Brazil is all about Neymar is clearly a European bit of nonsense. I'm guessing you didn't watch a single Brazil qualifier? Yeah. Thought so. Neymar was actaully not involved in most attacks, which predominantly came, as others have noted, though Willian, Coutinho, Paulinho, and to some degree Marcelo. Brazil scored 8 goals, from six players. It was pretty evenly spread among the attack. Indeed, it was more balanced than in 2014, frankly, because Tite is far better coach.

I have to say the amount of completely ill-informed comments is kind of astonishing.

[brainbomb]

France vs England final

[Octavious]

I'm hoping Belgium make it and we have an all Group G final .

Not much in it according to the bookies, but France slightly more favoured. I would say I was pretty confident of a European team winning the cup, but Ogion would accuse me of bias

[Octavious]

As to the subject of why European teams do better at home, it's partly the culture (playing somewhere with an alien football culture, such as South Africa where football chants are replaced by the drone of cheap horns is undoubtedly off putting), partly due to climate, partly being more familiar with the stadia, and partly because we cheat. Platini himself said the draw for France '98 was fixed, the refereeing in '66 was shocking (not the goal in the final, but the refereeing in general), and similar nonsense has happened pretty much everywhere.

I would like to think that in the modern age it is different... but I'm not at all confident in that.

[damo666]

Tonight's game something crazy like 3-3 or 4-4. Hoping it goes to et and pens and it doesn't really matter who wins (though I bet on Belgium outright pre tournament). England fairly comfortable win over a knackered Critics followed by a tense 1-0 win in the final whoever it's against. Yes, it's coming home. Admittedly I am biased.

[damo666]

* Croatia

[Octavious]

If not for the Sweden game I would have said that a fairly comfortable England win was a myth. It might happen against Croatia if they've had too much taken out of them, but I'm expecting a close fight.

Tonight's game has all the hallmarks of one of those eagerly awaited classic goalfests that ends up a 0-0 draw. I'm almost tempted to put a bet on.

[brainbomb]

Do not insult the vuvuzela

[Octavious]

Do not insult the vuvuzela

Why on earth not?

[Kingdroid]

If not for the Sweden game I would have said that a fairly comfortable England win was a myth. It might happen against Croatia if they've had too much taken out of them, but I'm expecting a close fight.

Tonight's game has all the hallmarks of one of those eagerly awaited classic goalfests that ends up a 0-0 draw. I'm almost tempted to put a bet on.

Seriously. I feel like it *should* be a high scoring game, but my gut is telling me I'll end up being disappointed as both teams try not to bleed

[Kingdroid]

only one comment for that Belgium - France game. Truly awful refereeing.

[SuperSteve]

It sure seems like the officials are erring on the side of not calling anything. Can't say I blame them. Fail to make a call you should, there is grumbling. Make a call you shouldn't and something comes of it... you are a villain for centuries.

[RoganJosh]

Sometimes they change their mind in a way that makes it seem like the VAR people are whispering in their ears in a manner they're not supposed to.

[peterlund]

Croatia GO GO! But France will win the final. England may get the bronze...

[brainbomb]

VUVUZELAAAA