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Re: Introducing the first ever webDiplomacy Terminator Tournament!
Posted: Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:39 pm
by gimix
Or lower :D :D
But i'm not sure your estimate is correct. Assuming a 50% average solo rate most of the players should have 1 or 2 solos, with a few having 0 or 3. Since we have (at least) 80 players a normal distribution would mean about 40 of them will be in the 2-to-3 range. So the 3-soloers will qualify, and some of the 2-soloers will join them. Perhaps someone with a 2-way draw, if it is a possible outcome at all when playing with the bots - and/or someone with a 3-way. It will be very close i think
Re: Introducing the first ever webDiplomacy Terminator Tournament!
Posted: Tue Sep 17, 2019 1:57 pm
by Claesar
gimix wrote: ↑Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:39 pm
Or lower :D :D
But i'm not sure your estimate is correct. Assuming a 50% average solo rate most of the players should have 1 or 2 solos, with a few having 0 or 3. Since we have (at least) 80 players a normal distribution would mean about 40 of them will be in the 2-to-3 range. So the 3-soloers will qualify, and some of the 2-soloers will join them. Perhaps someone with a 2-way draw, if it is a possible outcome at all when playing with the bots - and/or someone with a 3-way. It will be very close i think
A 50% solo rate for everyone means:
1) 12.5% (0.5*0.5*0.5) of the players, i.e. 10, will have 3 solos.
3) 37.5% (3*0.5^3) of the players, i.e. 30, will have 2 or 3 solos.
So you're wrong about 40, but I also made a calculation error.. Only half the players with 2 solos will qualify given a 50% solo rate.
Re: Introducing the first ever webDiplomacy Terminator Tournament!
Posted: Tue Sep 17, 2019 2:02 pm
by Chaqa
Fuckin Italy...
Re: Introducing the first ever webDiplomacy Terminator Tournament!
Posted: Tue Sep 17, 2019 2:03 pm
by Chaqa
That's what I get for picking Austria...
My games are all either amazing, or dead in the water immediately.
Re: Introducing the first ever webDiplomacy Terminator Tournament!
Posted: Tue Sep 17, 2019 4:52 pm
by yuuki
Based on my experience so far, I think the solo rate will depend a lot on which countries were picked. I have found it so far extremely difficult to solo with England and Germany, which is curious given that those are two of the countries that I solo more often with on regular gunboat.
Re: Introducing the first ever webDiplomacy Terminator Tournament!
Posted: Tue Sep 17, 2019 4:53 pm
by yuuki
I'm slightly regretting picking France as it seems to me that it is easier to solo as Austria than France, but I'm glad my other countries are Italy and Turkey
Re: Introducing the first ever webDiplomacy Terminator Tournament!
Posted: Tue Sep 17, 2019 5:50 pm
by KalelChase
France, Italy & Russia done... wish I could have picked the same country for all three plays.
Re: Introducing the first ever webDiplomacy Terminator Tournament!
Posted: Tue Sep 17, 2019 5:51 pm
by mhsmith0
Feels like a good % of people are dying FAST as Austria, probably because Italy is attacking them in 1901 well more often than site meta suggests. Italy felt *TOO* easy to solo, mainly b/c I don't think the bots really recognized the importance of key stalemate line positions or when I was in strong position to stab or to start moving towards a solo.
Re: Introducing the first ever webDiplomacy Terminator Tournament!
Posted: Tue Sep 17, 2019 9:07 pm
by Carl Tuckerson
Italy is definitely tier 0 against the bots right now
Re: Introducing the first ever webDiplomacy Terminator Tournament!
Posted: Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:43 pm
by Johnny Big Horse
I have been playing practice rounds before I play tournament games, and I am getting my ass kicked as Germany.
Re: Introducing the first ever webDiplomacy Terminator Tournament!
Posted: Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:44 pm
by Johnny Big Horse
There is no way I will solo anything. I am just not champion material I guess
Re: Introducing the first ever webDiplomacy Terminator Tournament!
Posted: Tue Sep 17, 2019 10:51 pm
by Johnny Big Horse
Maybe we should change the tournament to 7 games, one for each country. Then you can get great data on which countries win, and the winners of the tournament have little to do with which countries they chose.
Re: Introducing the first ever webDiplomacy Terminator Tournament!
Posted: Tue Sep 17, 2019 11:56 pm
by BobMcBob
Yep, I'm out of this tournament for sure. Bad decision-making lost me the first game, a 7-center Russia at the end of 1901 combined with a juggernaut (plus a lack of balancing decisions on my behalf) lost me the second. And then since there was no chance of me doing well in the tournament anyway, I suicided my last game.
These bots did a lot better in my tournament games than the few warm-up games I did. I guess the bots aren't so bad after all...
Re: Introducing the first ever webDiplomacy Terminator Tournament!
Posted: Wed Sep 18, 2019 12:30 am
by random1
Got quickly destroyed as Austria, won as England. They don't recognize stalemate lines and are quite poor in the late game overall; if you make it past certain point, the game is probably yours.
Re: Introducing the first ever webDiplomacy Terminator Tournament!
Posted: Wed Sep 18, 2019 1:34 am
by bo_sox48
More invites have gone out. If you haven't gotten one but signed up, please let me know.
Congratulations to the 5 of you who have chosen countries other than France and Turkey.
Re: Introducing the first ever webDiplomacy Terminator Tournament!
Posted: Wed Sep 18, 2019 2:15 am
by Chaqa
bo_sox48 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2019 1:34 am
More invites have gone out. If you haven't gotten one but signed up, please let me know.
Congratulations to the 5 of you who have chosen countries other than France and Turkey.
Do we get a handicap or something?
Re: Introducing the first ever webDiplomacy Terminator Tournament!
Posted: Wed Sep 18, 2019 2:33 am
by bo_sox48
Some updates have been made to the bot to try and enhance its unpredictability in certain scenarios. If you have played your first three games and want to replay them with these changes, you are free to do so as long as you please simply PM me the URLs to your three new games.
Remember that this tournament is intended for all of us to get to know the bots and to have fun playing them, not just to crown a champion. But we'll do that too.
Re: Introducing the first ever webDiplomacy Terminator Tournament!
Posted: Wed Sep 18, 2019 3:57 am
by BobMcBob
bo_sox48 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2019 2:33 am
Some updates have been made to the bot to try and enhance its unpredictability in certain scenarios. If you have played your first three games and want to replay them with these changes, you are free to do so as long as you please simply PM me the URLs to your three new games.
Remember that this tournament is intended for all of us to get to know the bots and to have fun playing them, not just to crown a champion. But we'll do that too.
What time were these changes made? Are they the ones discussed by jmo yesterday on the main bot thread or are they more recent? They sound the same.
Re: Introducing the first ever webDiplomacy Terminator Tournament!
Posted: Wed Sep 18, 2019 4:12 am
by Carl Tuckerson
Hot take, England/Germany/Italy is the best roster
Re: Introducing the first ever webDiplomacy Terminator Tournament!
Posted: Wed Sep 18, 2019 4:21 am
by jmo1121109
BobMcBob wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2019 3:57 am
bo_sox48 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 18, 2019 2:33 am
Some updates have been made to the bot to try and enhance its unpredictability in certain scenarios. If you have played your first three games and want to replay them with these changes, you are free to do so as long as you please simply PM me the URLs to your three new games.
Remember that this tournament is intended for all of us to get to know the bots and to have fun playing them, not just to crown a champion. But we'll do that too.
What time were these changes made? Are they the ones discussed by jmo yesterday on the main bot thread or are they more recent? They sound the same.
They're different. They only apply to 50% of the bots in a game selected at random to see which works out better. Changes the aggressiveness of the bots. Will make "gaming" a specific country/alliance near impossible on a consistent basis.