ODC 2019 Tournament Start

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Durga
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Start

#221 Post by Durga » Thu Jul 04, 2019 3:57 pm

Congrats to Your Humble Narrator on his solo! We've got one game left for this round friends.
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ChippeRock
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Start

#222 Post by ChippeRock » Thu Jul 04, 2019 4:27 pm

Durga wrote:
Tue Jun 25, 2019 1:51 pm
SimonMH wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 10:33 am
Fascinating. Thank you to everyone for putting in the work to make this a success.

A mild caveat: the players in the last two games know exactly what they need to do to go through; a luxury that was denied the speedier finishers. In Round 2 is there a case for keeping results secret until all are finished?
Yes I'm happy to enforce that. There's a reason I never posted the score for this round. Perhaps I should have been stricter when it came to other people doing it
It only makes the information harder to attain - not impossible to attain. I can still go and compile all of the scores and simply keep it for myself and not post them.

There's unfortunately no real way to eliminate this advantage of dragging out games longer through pauses and the like. You can suppress the distribution of the information, but the information still exists. The only other real solution would be to cut down on the amount of pause time given to players.

SimonMH
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Start

#223 Post by SimonMH » Fri Jul 05, 2019 2:32 pm

ChippeRock wrote:
Thu Jul 04, 2019 4:27 pm

It only makes the information harder to attain - not impossible to attain. I can still go and compile all of the scores and simply keep it for myself and not post them.

There's unfortunately no real way to eliminate this advantage of dragging out games longer through pauses and the like. You can suppress the distribution of the information, but the information still exists. The only other real solution would be to cut down on the amount of pause time given to players.
Is there not a way to make the games private so that only those who are playing can see them?

ChippeRock
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Start

#224 Post by ChippeRock » Fri Jul 05, 2019 2:47 pm

SimonMH wrote:
Fri Jul 05, 2019 2:32 pm
ChippeRock wrote:
Thu Jul 04, 2019 4:27 pm

It only makes the information harder to attain - not impossible to attain. I can still go and compile all of the scores and simply keep it for myself and not post them.

There's unfortunately no real way to eliminate this advantage of dragging out games longer through pauses and the like. You can suppress the distribution of the information, but the information still exists. The only other real solution would be to cut down on the amount of pause time given to players.
Is there not a way to make the games private so that only those who are playing can see them?
Sure there is, but the gameID's would have to be significantly different from each other - otherwise people could add/subtract a couple numbers from their games and find the other games. Even if you do space out when you create the games, I just don't think there are enough games that could be created in between that would make it a frivolous pursuit to try finding the other games based off of gameIDs.

Claesar
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Start

#225 Post by Claesar » Fri Jul 05, 2019 3:11 pm

SimonMH wrote:
Fri Jul 05, 2019 2:32 pm
Is there not a way to make the games private so that only those who are playing can see them?
No, that feature currently doesn't exist.

ChippeRock
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Start

#226 Post by ChippeRock » Sun Jul 07, 2019 2:36 am

Actually, Durga could simply pause the games when someone's soloed or if everybody drew the game - than unpause and reveal identities when the games were all done.

This might take some help from the mod team though to draw the game if everybody votes draw or somebody solos.

jmo1121109
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Start

#227 Post by jmo1121109 » Sun Jul 07, 2019 4:31 am

We can't really do it, the tournament is hidden draw vote so doing mod intervention would be nearly impossible. I proposed a technical solution in the discord the other day that I think will solve this though and should be available before the next round has games finishing.
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SimonMH
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Start

#228 Post by SimonMH » Sun Jul 07, 2019 2:39 pm

What limited mathematical abilities I ever had are now pretty much restricted to backgammon equities and bridge percentages. I would be interested to know what people think is the odds-on score to reach the final table.

I may even offer a small prize in gratitude to the responder with the most accurate answer.

Claesar
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Start

#229 Post by Claesar » Sun Jul 07, 2019 11:26 pm

SimonMH wrote:
Sun Jul 07, 2019 2:39 pm
What limited mathematical abilities I ever had are now pretty much restricted to backgammon equities and bridge percentages. I would be interested to know what people think is the odds-on score to reach the final table.

I may even offer a small prize in gratitude to the responder with the most accurate answer.
I'll calculate something for you if you'll play a few hands of Bridge with me online.
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90kicvesb
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Start

#230 Post by 90kicvesb » Mon Jul 08, 2019 1:07 am

As someone who uses stats every day at work and used to play bridge regularly, the mere existence of Claesar's post makes me happy. My guess is 48.
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Claesar
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Start

#231 Post by Claesar » Mon Jul 08, 2019 8:14 am

Wait, were we talking final table, or second round?

90kicvesb
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Start

#232 Post by 90kicvesb » Mon Jul 08, 2019 5:17 pm

I was talking about the final table. Since ~25% of the field advances in each round by my understanding, I expect similar thresholds.

teccles
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Start

#233 Post by teccles » Mon Jul 08, 2019 8:43 pm

Here's my crack at this; it has simulations and stuff! TL;DR - 47.2

I assumed that:
  • The players are assigned randomly to games.
  • Each game has a random result, drawn from the (finished) results of the first round, except that I reduced the probability of solos to 1 in 6, because my understanding is that this should go down as the field gets stronger.
  • The results are randomly distributed among the players in the game.
I then simulated 1000 semi-finals. For each, I took the qualification threshold as halfway between the 7th and 8th best player. The final threshold - 47.2 - is the median of those thresholds.

Some other things:
  • To qualify 95% of the time, 51.1 points should do it.
  • To miss out 95% of the time, aim to get less than 39.2 points.
  • This threshold actually barely varies with solo probability; there's only a very slightly higher bar in a zero-solo world, and very slightly lower in a half-games-solo world.
  • I also tried out a model where the players have varied skill, so win probabilities weren't uniform. This also has remarkably little effect on the points needed to qualify.
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SimonMH
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Start

#234 Post by SimonMH » Wed Jul 10, 2019 5:39 am

Claesar wrote:
Sun Jul 07, 2019 11:26 pm
SimonMH wrote:
Sun Jul 07, 2019 2:39 pm
What limited mathematical abilities I ever had are now pretty much restricted to backgammon equities and bridge percentages. I would be interested to know what people think is the odds-on score to reach the final table.

I may even offer a small prize in gratitude to the responder with the most accurate answer.
I'll calculate something for you if you'll play a few hands of Bridge with me online.
Now there's an offer I can't refuse!

SimonMH
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Start

#235 Post by SimonMH » Wed Jul 10, 2019 5:58 am

teccles wrote:
Mon Jul 08, 2019 8:43 pm
Here's my crack at this; it has simulations and stuff! TL;DR - 47.2

I assumed that:
  • The players are assigned randomly to games.
  • Each game has a random result, drawn from the (finished) results of the first round, except that I reduced the probability of solos to 1 in 6, because my understanding is that this should go down as the field gets stronger.
  • The results are randomly distributed among the players in the game.
I then simulated 1000 semi-finals. For each, I took the qualification threshold as halfway between the 7th and 8th best player. The final threshold - 47.2 - is the median of those thresholds.

Some other things:
  • To qualify 95% of the time, 51.1 points should do it.
  • To miss out 95% of the time, aim to get less than 39.2 points.
  • This threshold actually barely varies with solo probability; there's only a very slightly higher bar in a zero-solo world, and very slightly lower in a half-games-solo world.
  • I also tried out a model where the players have varied skill, so win probabilities weren't uniform. This also has remarkably little effect on the points needed to qualify.
Now that is a comprehensive answer! Thank you!

SimonMH
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Start

#236 Post by SimonMH » Wed Jul 10, 2019 6:18 am

There is a fine fellow called Teccles
(I'm told he lives somewhere near Beccles)
His great simulation
Gave us elation
I regret this reward's not in shekels
3

teccles
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Start

#237 Post by teccles » Wed Jul 10, 2019 6:47 am

Why, thank you! And by chance (or more sinister forces) the rumours are true... I do live within 100 miles of Beccles, which isn't bad going with the whole globe to aim at.
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Ogion
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Start

#238 Post by Ogion » Sun Jul 14, 2019 4:13 pm

Did this tournament die?

teccles
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Start

#239 Post by teccles » Sun Jul 14, 2019 4:21 pm

No, there’s just one game going on much longer than all the others

Durga
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Start

#240 Post by Durga » Sun Jul 14, 2019 6:47 pm

Aight this isn't school of war so let's not publicly comment on the games

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