ODC 2019 Tournament Discussion (finished games only)

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ChippeRock
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Discussion (finished games only)

#21 Post by ChippeRock » Wed May 08, 2019 8:35 pm

jmo1121109 wrote:
Wed May 08, 2019 6:01 pm
Octavious wrote:
Wed May 08, 2019 5:07 pm
Commenting on games you weren't involved in is never easy as so much happens that you aren't privy to. If I was Balki I'd have no regrets at all about sticking it to England and Germany. Where I would be critical of myself is in the failure to establish believability prior to informing EG of the consequences of their aggression. Sometimes you can walk away confident that you did everything you could and it's just one of those things, and other times you are left with little irritations over opportunities missed and conversations that were mishandled.

I'm curious if Balki would have done anything differently given the chance?
See I don't really agree with this entirely. You're right that the press changes many things but it does not change base tactics. And the moves by E and G tactically were unmistakable for people considering eliminating Russia from the match. That is universally responded too with throwing the game. Autumn, 1907 was the big mistake in my mind. Tactically alone, Russia *NEEDED* 4 armies including an army in Galicia to stop the Italian solo. Germany's move on Warsaw was going to prevent that setup from being possible timing wise even if Balki hadn't thrown. They compromised the solo stop with that attack. So it went from being a sound plan to a terrible one with that purely tactical mess up.

This tournament in particular seems to have a lot of people not believing that someone will be willing to throw when screwed over so to see people continuing to make that mistake is baffling.
England and Germany were intent on eliminating Russia? That's news to me - it's extremely risky and a German fleet in St. Pete wasn't going to help take Russia's SCs. England & Germany were only going to take those SCs from Russia (at worst case, maybe Warsaw as well, but that's worst case) and eliminate France - than England would of backstabbed Germany to get a huge 3 way draw out of the game. And yes, England did in fact have these plans.

Balki, you probably could of made yourself a little more believable if you had told Germany & England that you didn't need this game to advance. This certainly would of increased your odds of keeping your SCs and drawing. But, hindsight is 20/20, and I probably wouldn't of even thought of mentioning that.

jmo1121109
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Discussion (finished games only)

#22 Post by jmo1121109 » Wed May 08, 2019 10:05 pm

I don't get how this isn't clear. Sev was what was needed for Italy to win. So in order to prevent him from doing that 1907 Russia was going to need an army in Ukraine, Sev, Moscow, and Galcia. If Italy took Galicia then Galicia taps Ukraine and Sev falls. Since Italy was assured to take Bud, Rum, Black Sea, and Armenia this scenario isn't debatable. It's what 100% would have needed to happen to prevent that solo.

The SC's needed to do this would be Sev, Warsaw, Moscow, and...StP. Since smyrna, Ankara, Budapest, and Vienna weren't long term secured. And despite this, England and Germany took Norway and StP that year. Leaving Russia with no viable option to hold down Galicia which would not have left Warsaw or Moscow undefended. Which means leaving himself in a position where he's unable to defend against a pull-back by Italy where Italy allows Germany and England to remove Russia from the game. But even without that possible pull-back, once the secured/holdable centers for Russia was reduced from 4 to 3 the game was over. Anyone who understands tactics was going to draw the same conclusion.

And to answer this "England and Germany were intent on eliminating Russia?". I never said that, I said it was possible, big difference.

I also don't understand the plan of "eliminate France". France was also in a position to successful throw the game if that had been attempted.

ChippeRock
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Discussion (finished games only)

#23 Post by ChippeRock » Thu May 09, 2019 2:25 am

And the moves by E and G tactically were unmistakable for people considering eliminating Russia from the match.
Ah, my bad, that seemed pretty clear on what you were saying...
Sev was what was needed for Italy to win.
I seem to recall needing 5 SCs to solo when Russia threw the game to me. That's not "only Sevastopol". Russia had the capability for staving off my solo with 2 SCs to spare for years to come. And in that time Germany could of sent an army to help hold onto Ukraine & Galicia (which would help hold onto Sevastopol) to force the stalemate.

England was also going to backstab Germany - Russia could of taken back Warsaw at least. And England surely would of helped out Russia by supporting him back into St. Pete.

While there was a decent chance that I could of soloed had Russia not thrown the game, as long as England & Germany didn't butcher it, I think it was attainable. I also think that England could of pulled it off to force a 3 way draw. If England had immediately backstabbed Germany the very next year, Russia would of been able to salvage Warsaw and England would of gotten a large chunk out of the draw.

I think it was a great move by England & Germany, and if it weren't for Russia throwing the game, I think England had a good chance of successfully pulling off a backstab of Germany to get a 3 way draw. However, I see your point, and there was a reasonably good chance I could of soloed had Russia not thrown the game.

MoscowFleet
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Discussion (finished games only)

#24 Post by MoscowFleet » Sat May 11, 2019 9:17 am

Both my games finished within a few days of each other:

https://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=236426
https://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=237246

Hopefully enough to get me through. Let’s see.

Brumark
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Discussion (finished games only)

#25 Post by Brumark » Sat May 11, 2019 5:02 pm

Only two players have currently exceeded the guaranteed (pre any results) minimum to progress of 127.6 points (3,700/29)

Claesar
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Discussion (finished games only)

#26 Post by Claesar » Sat May 11, 2019 6:04 pm

Brumark wrote:
Sat May 11, 2019 5:02 pm
Only two players have currently exceeded the guaranteed (pre any results) minimum to progress of 127.6 points (3,700/29)
The guaranteed result has lowered though, as you implicated. I could calculate it, but I'm not close to being close to that bar.

Brumark
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Discussion (finished games only)

#27 Post by Brumark » Sat May 11, 2019 7:12 pm

I thought about it but its a rather complex calculation and there are just better things to do in life. If anyone calculates it correctly I will be mightily impressed
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Discussion (finished games only)

#28 Post by TrPrado » Sat May 11, 2019 7:25 pm

I bet I’ll make it to the next round.
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Claesar
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Discussion (finished games only)

#29 Post by Claesar » Sat May 11, 2019 7:56 pm

Brumark wrote:
Sat May 11, 2019 7:12 pm
I thought about it but its a rather complex calculation and there are just better things to do in life. If anyone calculates it correctly I will be mightily impressed
I could do it if I were sober.
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Senlac
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Discussion (finished games only)

#30 Post by Senlac » Sat May 11, 2019 10:51 pm

Claesar wrote:
Sat May 11, 2019 7:56 pm
Brumark wrote:
Sat May 11, 2019 7:12 pm
I thought about it but its a rather complex calculation and there are just better things to do in life. If anyone calculates it correctly I will be mightily impressed
I could do it if I were sober.
Don’t know what it is about mathematicians, but I’m jealous always that you can see the logic sufficiently well to conquer such a calculation.
At 17 I realised natural sciences were easy & physical sciences were hard, simply because so many of my contemporaries could do this stuff & I couldn’t.
At least I had the good sense to tip my hat to their abilities & train to become a brewmaster. Making beer only requires arithmetic....:-)
Good luck to you on that sobriety bit, Cheers!
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Ogion
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Discussion (finished games only)

#31 Post by Ogion » Tue May 14, 2019 2:17 am

http://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=237253

I’m sure there is a player who wants to yell at me.

Goodness though, this was a rare game where I oretty juch got lied to every damn turn.

diplomat554
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Discussion (finished games only)

#32 Post by diplomat554 » Wed May 15, 2019 8:03 pm

I think we all did our fair share of yelling that game Ogion! I blame sum-of-squares for any annoying aspects of my play. Once my lines were secure, I didn't have anything to lose from continuing to irritate you as long as England was on board. (For what it's worth, I don't think I was ever dishonest with you about my draw vote.)

I think each of us was too big for the other to solo. We both had to dedicate too many units to holding the line against each other to finish off England or Turkey. I may have had an outside chance if I hadn't forgotten to let Italy survive in 1910 -- d'oh, sorry man. And then there was the Munich misorder lol. Would have been nice to be top of the board but you deserved it Ogion. Big shout out to DarthWader and Pjsticha for making it out of very tough positions early on!

Josafina
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Discussion (finished games only)

#33 Post by Josafina » Thu May 16, 2019 12:10 am

Brumark wrote:
Sat May 11, 2019 7:12 pm
I thought about it but its a rather complex calculation and there are just better things to do in life. If anyone calculates it correctly I will be mightily impressed
I did some quick calculations - so not exactly "correct". But, I did find that above 80 as of the last update guarantees a spot in the next round. For that scenario to happen several bizarre two way draws would have to take place between specific players - so improbable at best.

If I were a bookie I would put the over/under at 44 points.
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Discussion (finished games only)

#34 Post by SimonMH » Thu May 16, 2019 12:53 am

Re: R1G1
Looking at the game board in Autumn of 06 there was basically no chance of Italy solo'ing. Russia had unit positioning set up perfectly to allow Italy to slowly devour Turkish centers since there was no possible way of defending those long term, and the retreat into Smyrna slowed down Italy's growth. The Black Sea was inevitable for Italy and there was no tactical benefit to keeping it. In that position it absolutely made sense to keep a unit in Stp to ensure that nobody tried to cut him out of a draw when there was 0 solo risk increase in return. The key unit was Sev for 18, and with 4 armies in Galicia, Ukraine, Sev, and Moscow, Italy was not going to win that game. Russia's tactical handling of the solo prevention was sound. The ONLY reason that game ended in a solo is because the tournament structure encourages people to be greedy with supply centers to the point of poor play, which is exactly what happened to England. No top player is going to allow themselves to be eaten up and risk a drawback from Italy allowing them to be eliminated in any game, much less a tournament.

And the idea that England needed a build there was foolish. Once MAO was locked down there was no need for England to grow. Throw in Germany's poor play to attack Russia with England for points, and honestly I've never been happier to see someone throw a game. Because the play by England and Germany there didn't deserve any points.
I was England in this game. I have come late to the discussion but I do feel compelled to reply: that analysis of the tactical position is utter horseshit!

Tell you what, let's make a challenge of it. Set up a board with the Autumn '06 position. You play Italy, I will play the allies with the retreat to Black Sea, then we swap round with your retreat.

I guarantee that my allies will destroy you in short order, not just slow your advance.

On a further note it is utterly depressing to see people defend game throwing. I have enjoyed and am enjoying this tournament, but any scoring system that not only allows but encourages people to throw games instead of settling for a draw is just wrong. The fact that the thrower is clearly a well-known and respected member of this community does not change that.
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The Belgian Bulldog
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Discussion (finished games only)

#35 Post by The Belgian Bulldog » Thu May 16, 2019 6:50 am

SimonMH wrote:
Thu May 16, 2019 12:53 am
Re: R1G1

I was England in this game. I have come late to the discussion but I do feel compelled to reply: that analysis of the tactical position is utter horseshit!

Tell you what, let's make a challenge of it. Set up a board with the Autumn '06 position. You play Italy, I will play the allies with the retreat to Black Sea, then we swap round with your retreat.

I guarantee that my allies will destroy you in short order, not just slow your advance.

On a further note it is utterly depressing to see people defend game throwing. I have enjoyed and am enjoying this tournament, but any scoring system that not only allows but encourages people to throw games instead of settling for a draw is just wrong. The fact that the thrower is clearly a well-known and respected member of this community does not change that.
I have watched that game and the moves against Russia at a crucial point in time with surprise, I have to say. And I don't get your argument against the scoring system: you know this when you subscribed and when you are playing, you know the consequences, and you know players take the scoring system into account.

If this would have been draw-size scoring, perhaps Russia would not have thrown. But also : if this would have been draw-size scoring, perhaps (or rather : most certainly) you would not have taken the risk to go after Russia when he was holding the line against a solo. Your actions were particularly because of the scoring system and looking at it solely from your own perspective. So your argument against the scoring system is frankly irrelevant and tries to deflect from the mistakes that were made under the scoring system.

As for the fact that the "thrower" is a well-respected member of this community, perhaps it contributes to people's opinions. Definitely, if people here know that the player only does this when strictly necessary, it certainly will, but that again gives you no ammunition, perhaps even the contrary. Anyhow, I can tell you that I am new to this forum, coming from FtF, don't know the "thrower" and the above is just my honest opinion.
Last edited by The Belgian Bulldog on Thu May 16, 2019 6:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
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The Belgian Bulldog
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Discussion (finished games only)

#36 Post by The Belgian Bulldog » Thu May 16, 2019 6:50 am

[Error]

SimonMH
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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Discussion (finished games only)

#37 Post by SimonMH » Thu May 16, 2019 9:02 am

Yes, you are correct, my move against Russia was because of the scoring system: I felt I needed 8 or 9 centres minimum in the draw. Actually, given my good result in game 2 that was an error, but it seemed reasonable at the time.

That is an entirely different thing to throwing a game because you already have 100 in the bag, isn't it?

As I said at the time, if Russia had been on 20-40 points after his first game, he would have swallowed his pride fast enough and taken what was on offer.

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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Discussion (finished games only)

#38 Post by Ogion » Thu May 16, 2019 1:45 pm

diplomat554 wrote:
Wed May 15, 2019 8:03 pm
I think we all did our fair share of yelling that game Ogion! I blame sum-of-squares for any annoying aspects of my play. Once my lines were secure, I didn't have anything to lose from continuing to irritate you as long as England was on board. (For what it's worth, I don't think I was ever dishonest with you about my draw vote.)

I think each of us was too big for the other to solo. We both had to dedicate too many units to holding the line against each other to finish off England or Turkey. I may have had an outside chance if I hadn't forgotten to let Italy survive in 1910 -- d'oh, sorry man. And then there was the Munich misorder lol. Would have been nice to be top of the board but you deserved it Ogion. Big shout out to DarthWader and Pjsticha for making it out of very tough positions early on!
Yeah, I finally realized you were being on the level. That was a real head scratcher. I guess it was England?

And I'm especially impressed with England never making it off the island until Autumn 1910 and then making the draw with 6. I don't think I've ever seen that.

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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Discussion (finished games only)

#39 Post by DavidMaletsky » Thu May 16, 2019 3:12 pm

One thing I noticed in both my games was that even though it’s SoS scoring, the DSS mindset seemed heavily ingrained. It was particularly pronounced on the one that ended 12-11-11, but on both it seemed like players thought eliminating others was meritorious, and that smaller powers largely gave up on diplomacy, having similarly consigned themselves to elimination. It was very reminiscent of what FTF play was like a decade plus ago.

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Re: ODC 2019 Tournament Discussion (finished games only)

#40 Post by SimonMH » Thu May 16, 2019 3:32 pm

Having said that, I will concede
My rimes can sometimes be perceived
As tasteless, vulgar, vicious bile
The man who writes them must be vile!

The answer's very simple though
Play fair and do not fork me! Oh
I give you warning plain and clear
Play fair and do not fork me, dear

And yet and yet, I can regret
It ever came to this sad nyet
I could say sorry, even now,
If there were some way, somehow?

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