Search found 87 matches

by Tugster
Fri Jan 17, 2020 11:55 pm
Forum: Diplomacy Advice
Topic: 1v1 Puzzles
Replies: 86
Views: 19805

Re: 1v1 Puzzles

MH Smith goes over it well again. CLEARLY, there is no 100% certain way for France to win. He has to take risk to make a guess to go for the win, and if Austria counter guesses correctly at that moment, Austria can win. The guesses are in fact in France's favor, but not in a certain way. It's not pr...
by Tugster
Fri Jan 17, 2020 6:28 pm
Forum: Diplomacy Advice
Topic: 1v1 Puzzles
Replies: 86
Views: 19805

Re: 1v1 Puzzles

and as soon as you say this:

But it is true (and maybe to mention as a hint for other players), that if you impose a turn limit, then there is a positive probability that Austria will get a draw or a win.

you admit that it's not probability 1
by Tugster
Fri Jan 17, 2020 6:17 pm
Forum: Diplomacy Advice
Topic: 1v1 Puzzles
Replies: 86
Views: 19805

Re: 1v1 Puzzles

and the example of random numbers between 0 and 1 being rational is really not applicable here, because in that example, we are talking about infinitesimal small chances of hitting a rational number, in the limit zero. In this game, the chances of Austrian getting his guess right and taking Berlin a...
by Tugster
Fri Jan 17, 2020 6:15 pm
Forum: Diplomacy Advice
Topic: 1v1 Puzzles
Replies: 86
Views: 19805

Re: 1v1 Puzzles

It's pretty clear from this lengthy analysis by MHSMith that it is not probability 1, it's not 100%. Because one of those ifs and guesses goes the other way, the French game crumbles, with distinct non zero probabilities of an Austrian win. And when you go into all the iterations, it is totally crys...
by Tugster
Fri Jan 17, 2020 10:16 am
Forum: Diplomacy Advice
Topic: 1v1 Puzzles
Replies: 86
Views: 19805

Re: 1v1 Puzzles

and do this every turn, Each turn going forward forever, France decides on his moves first, then tell Austria, then Austria writes his moves. France will never get SC 18 in this scenario. If Austria guesses right forever, Austria will never lose. Yes, this is unlikely, but it is NOT 100% for France,...
by Tugster
Fri Jan 17, 2020 9:58 am
Forum: Diplomacy Advice
Topic: 1v1 Puzzles
Replies: 86
Views: 19805

Re: 1v1 Puzzles

puzzle 3 is bullshit, there is no move set for France that will give a win with 100% certainty, none, but it is also not a stalemate, it is a series of guesses, and France might win, if he guesses well, but Austria might achieve a stalemate, if he guesses well. Probably 1 means "In all cases" with p...
by Tugster
Fri Nov 15, 2019 3:51 pm
Forum: Face to Face Diplomacy
Topic: webDip Player Map
Replies: 147
Views: 53466

Re: webDip Player Map

I am in Ann Arbor, Michigan. Color Blue, go Blue!

Hail to the Victors!
by Tugster
Tue Nov 05, 2019 2:54 am
Forum: Announcements
Topic: Misnamed territory
Replies: 10
Views: 9759

Re: Misnamed territory

and Marseilles is NOT spelled with an 's' at the end either.
by Tugster
Wed Sep 25, 2019 1:19 am
Forum: Diplomacy Advice
Topic: Has Diplomacy Regressed to Just Lying?
Replies: 46
Views: 13169

Re: Has Diplomacy Regressed to Just Lying?

David, my real name is Doug Burgoyne.
by Tugster
Wed Sep 25, 2019 1:18 am
Forum: Diplomacy Advice
Topic: Has Diplomacy Regressed to Just Lying?
Replies: 46
Views: 13169

Re: Has Diplomacy Regressed to Just Lying?

David Cohen, how are you? I have played since 1979, we lied our asses off...
by Tugster
Sat Sep 21, 2019 12:57 pm
Forum: Diplomacy Advice
Topic: Is a unit able to fight after its retreat
Replies: 5
Views: 5668

Re: Is a unit able to fight after its retreat

you should not be using the word "retreat" in your question. Serbia tried to move to Greece, and it failed to move to Greece, so it is still in Serbia, but this is not a "retreat" at all, it's a failure to move, so it is still in Serbia, defending itself at strength 1. It would have be be attacked b...
by Tugster
Mon Sep 16, 2019 2:04 pm
Forum: Announcements
Topic: AI bots on webDiplomacy: Skynet edition!
Replies: 214
Views: 141595

Re: AI bots on webDiplomacy: Skynet edition!

I have played three times, once as England, France and Germany, solo every time. Bots show zero long term awareness of impending solos, continuing to attack their nearest neighbor even while I am passing through 14 or 15 SC on the way to solo. I am a very experienced gunboat player and the bots are ...
by Tugster
Sat Sep 14, 2019 11:52 am
Forum: Tournaments
Topic: Introducing the first ever webDiplomacy Terminator Tournament!
Replies: 274
Views: 100296

Re: Introducing the first ever webDiplomacy Terminator Tournament!

Do the bots KNOW which player is the human, or do they assume that all players are bot or human, without knowing?
by Tugster
Thu May 23, 2019 7:41 am
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Gmail is disturbing
Replies: 22
Views: 6876

Re: Gmail is disturbing

various "people/agencies" can hack into anything, if they really want to badly enough, and it costs time, effort and money to do so, just depends how badly someone wants to know what you are doing and how important you are, or aren't.
by Tugster
Sun May 05, 2019 6:07 pm
Forum: Announcements
Topic: Changed RR, Missed Turns, and Game Create
Replies: 107
Views: 77579

Re: Changed RR, Missed Turns, and Game Create

that's certainly the answer, create Chaos games and World games with ZERO excused missed turns, which means, the second someone NMRs, they get booted instantly, that's the answer. We cannot change the ones already in place, but that will certainly get rid of the riff raff very quickly.
by Tugster
Sun May 05, 2019 4:06 pm
Forum: Announcements
Topic: Changed RR, Missed Turns, and Game Create
Replies: 107
Views: 77579

Re: Changed RR, Missed Turns, and Game Create

I do not entirely agree with the idea that these rules should not apply to Chaos games. On the one hand, it is going to make starting a Chaos game kind of slow and painful, pause, boot, replace, rinse repeat, etc. until 34 people are there that actually intend to play. Short term pain, long term gai...
by Tugster
Sun May 05, 2019 3:48 pm
Forum: Announcements
Topic: Changed RR, Missed Turns, and Game Create
Replies: 107
Views: 77579

Re: Changed RR, Missed Turns, and Game Create

but if I post my crashed game, it's anonymous, and I reveal to everyone that I am in it.
by Tugster
Sun May 05, 2019 3:08 pm
Forum: Announcements
Topic: Changed RR, Missed Turns, and Game Create
Replies: 107
Views: 77579

Re: Changed RR, Missed Turns, and Game Create

it's going to seriously boot unreliable people out of games in a hurry, essentially, second NMR in a game are you are instantly gone, even if they are not consecutive. Line up the firing squad for no load NMRers. Good riddance. It's a bonanza for those that like to look around for replacement zero b...
by Tugster
Tue Apr 09, 2019 5:59 pm
Forum: Announcements
Topic: SoS suggestion (question): Scoring under your bet counting as a survival
Replies: 6
Views: 2152

Re: SoS suggestion (question): Scoring under your bet counting as a survival

I never play SoS scoring, it sucks, see many other threads on this. To win, is to solo. in DSS, If you draw, with less total people that started the game, you gain points, the smaller number of people left, the more points you gain, so it's sort of a mini win, in terms of points bet and points lost,...
by Tugster
Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:11 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Very unsportsmanlike conduct
Replies: 18
Views: 4187

Re: Very unsportsmanlike conduct

All good posts. It's an absolute fact that taunting and rudeness is one of many press tactics that can be effectively employed (or can backfire). There are many press tactics that can work, if employed effectively. Cooperation, politeness, suggested actions, convincing, logical reasoning, silence, i...