Search found 126 matches

by swordsman3003
Sun Aug 18, 2019 12:32 am
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: Should Italy open west more?
Replies: 11
Views: 298

Re: Should Italy open west more?

As I've written before, Italy simply cannot ignore Austria and Turkey in favor of an attack on France. Austria and Turkey have no hope of solo winning without invading Italy. The same cannot be said about France. Introductions to Gunboat Diplomacy Solo Wins 5 Reasons I Love to Play as Italy in Gunbo...
by swordsman3003
Sun Aug 11, 2019 4:17 am
Forum: Announcements
Topic: Introducing Dark Mode
Replies: 38
Views: 1499

Re: Introducing Dark Mode

Well this new mode is just delightful.
by swordsman3003
Thu Aug 08, 2019 4:37 am
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy
Replies: 249
Views: 5078

Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

The Belgian Bulldog, your response is interesting to me and I appreciate your taking the time to write out a thoughtful disagreement. I understand and acknowledge that you said you agree with many of my points, and I appreciate your making the effort to point that out while disagreeing with me. From...
by swordsman3003
Fri Aug 02, 2019 12:37 am
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy
Replies: 249
Views: 5078

Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

Supposedly, luck plays a part in Diplomacy because... Version 1: Your opponent can out-think you in narrow end-game situations, so you should artificially randomize your moves. Version 2: Your opponent can't out-think you in narrow end-game situation, so no matter what any player does to decide thei...
by swordsman3003
Mon Jul 29, 2019 10:25 pm
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy
Replies: 249
Views: 5078

Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

Very good effort Mercy, very good. I really appreciate it, a concept that is difficult to communicate sincerely in a written discussion. I took your earlier Socratic question to be an effort to persuade me that there is a contradiction or weakness within my position. More specifically, I believe you...
by swordsman3003
Mon Jul 29, 2019 4:15 pm
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy
Replies: 249
Views: 5078

Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

I am responding to this question separately and quickly because I think it is important and easy to explain what I mean. This is an excellent question, and I welcome your testing of my thinking through good-faith questioning. I am pleased that you are challenging my ideas after attentively reflectin...
by swordsman3003
Mon Jul 29, 2019 12:07 am
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy
Replies: 249
Views: 5078

Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

This is probably my most thoughtful post in this thread. Please read if you are interested in my elaboration of my blog posts. Yes, the sources of luck in diplomacy are often linked to the human experience because Diplomacy is all about the human experience. Socratic questions: 1. The Definition of ...
by swordsman3003
Sat Jul 27, 2019 1:23 am
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy
Replies: 249
Views: 5078

Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

I agree that the “game” in game theory is probably best understood to be kind of metaphorical. I was offering to eat my hat if it did not apply to exactly the sort of game to which the metaphor is referring. I understand. I anticipated as much, but needed to make sure. Thank you for clarifying in g...
by swordsman3003
Fri Jul 26, 2019 11:36 pm
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy
Replies: 249
Views: 5078

Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

If game theory isn’t applicable to a game, I’ll eat my hat. On its face, this is a laughable claim. I am certain that “game theory,” in the sense that you are using it and intend me to understand it, refers to the branch of mathematics used for analyzing competitive situations where the participant...
by swordsman3003
Thu Jul 25, 2019 5:34 pm
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy
Replies: 249
Views: 5078

Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

The stubborn insistence on claiming luck is a real and present factor is hilariously ridiculous, and I for one don't blame swordsman at all for getting frustrated with your willing self-delusion. Nevertheless my opinion remains the same. There are a great number of factors over which you have no or...
by swordsman3003
Thu Jul 25, 2019 2:12 am
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy
Replies: 249
Views: 5078

Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

Multiple people have told you now that you have misrepresented what they've said to make your point, and you persist in pushing on ahead with mischaracterization after mischaracterization. On this, I simply disagree. My essays on luck in Diplomacy inform the reader that I am not taking other people...
by swordsman3003
Wed Jul 24, 2019 10:19 pm
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy
Replies: 249
Views: 5078

Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

It's self-evidently the case that Diplomacy has no RNG mechanics and nobody has ever argued otherwise. I began my essay by quoting real people, including one person describing Diplomacy as having RNG in that exact terminology. You. Didn’t. Read. The. Articles. It’s not at ALL “self-evident” that Di...
by swordsman3003
Wed Jul 24, 2019 4:07 am
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy
Replies: 249
Views: 5078

Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

Actually, my own opinion is that, while it is possible to have a situation where you best move is to flip a coin, the situation is so uncommon that if you are writing a blog with the aim to help people improve their gunboat skills, then you should ignore it. <33333 Actually my blog is whatever I fe...
by swordsman3003
Wed Jul 24, 2019 1:39 am
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy
Replies: 249
Views: 5078

Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

So Pterodactyls are dinosaurs and a tomato is a vegetable and RPS is random. [. . . ] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linguistic_prescription I am well-aware of criticisms of linguistic prescription. That concept is so far-afield from our conversation that I am not sure if you are aware of what the p...
by swordsman3003
Tue Jul 23, 2019 9:43 pm
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy
Replies: 249
Views: 5078

Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

I think this is the main point of disagreement. I don't think randomness is the optimal strategy, I think outguessing your opponent can yield better results. Jmo's 75% success rate at alledged 50/50s is a case study of this point. If Jmo's opponents would have been smart enough to use a random numb...
by swordsman3003
Tue Jul 23, 2019 4:23 am
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy
Replies: 249
Views: 5078

Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

Swordsman, what are you trying to say? I'm playing at laconic drama. :lol: Your Humble Narrator, please let me thank and compliment you for answering my call for a direct criticism of my essays. It seems to me that you are taking up the cause of the "Nash equilibrium" camp, no? You didn't use that ...
by swordsman3003
Tue Jul 23, 2019 3:16 am
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy
Replies: 249
Views: 5078

Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

Your Humble Narrator wrote:
Tue Jul 23, 2019 1:17 am
a rational opponent's decision
my rational opponent
predict my rational opponent's decision
The action of a rational player
predict rational players' decisions
...
Your opponent was sometimes irrational.
if your opponent is indeed rational


If.
by swordsman3003
Tue Jul 23, 2019 2:00 am
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy
Replies: 249
Views: 5078

Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

Anybody else I would talk to, if I said "RPS is largely random", they would agree with me. They would charitably interpret what I am saying and not assume that I am retarded. You're only... being confused... on purpose? To "win an argument"? Words mean what people interpret them to mean. Your refus...
by swordsman3003
Tue Jul 23, 2019 12:31 am
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy
Replies: 249
Views: 5078

Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

Like, are we allowed to say that there is some kind of element of randomness in RPS? No. Read on: In the game Rock, Paper, Scissors, two opponents randomly toss out hand gestures, and each one wins, loses or draws with equal probability. It's supposed to be a game of pure luck, not skill — and inde...
by swordsman3003
Mon Jul 22, 2019 7:21 pm
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy
Replies: 249
Views: 5078

Re: Luck Plays No Part in Diplomacy

I am intrigued by the claim that failure of optimal move choices, made blind and without the benefit of hindsight (ie the gunboat openings), constitutes “luck.” This is the most thought-provoking critique of my analysis. I never directly discussed this phenomenon in my essays. (1) I do think my sema...