Search found 54 matches

by Tugster
Sun May 10, 2020 5:33 am
Forum: Diplomacy Advice
Topic: Rules Clarification
Replies: 11
Views: 424

Re: Rules Clarification

there is a way that two armies can actually change places If one is convoyed and the other marches directly on land. Italy: Venice - Trieste ( via convoy) Fleet Adriatic convoys Venice to Trieste Austria: Trieste - Venice (via land) Trieste and Venice then swap positions, in this case, assuming no o...
by Tugster
Sun May 10, 2020 5:30 am
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: Gunboat with press
Replies: 3
Views: 265

Re: Gunboat with press

it's called open public press. It's another way to play. all messages and public. World with 17 players is the best map to play public press on, quite comical.
by Tugster
Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:13 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Positive aspects of the pandemic
Replies: 10
Views: 754

Re: Positive aspects of the pandemic

here's a lesson that most will never learn, but should: The economic value of actually useful things = real value. EG: Food, water, shelter, guns, ammo, tools. The economic values of non essential things = shit. EG: travel, restaurants, luxury, services, etc. Toilet Paper had virtually no value, NEW...
by Tugster
Sun Jan 19, 2020 5:54 pm
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: 1v1 Puzzles
Replies: 86
Views: 5017

Re: 1v1 Puzzles

THIS =>

France chooses between 1 and 0
Italy chooses between A and B

{0, A} or {1,B} is a French win.
{0, B} and they play another round.
{1, A} is a draw

I agree with, but that's not how this puzzle is set up.
by Tugster
Sun Jan 19, 2020 2:57 am
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: 1v1 Puzzles
Replies: 86
Views: 5017

Re: 1v1 Puzzles

In order to take Spain, France must put Marseilles at risk, if Austria makes the correct defensive guess that turn, he takes Marseilles, swapping it for Spain, and then it's a permanent stalemate. If France gives Marseilles the full defense, and Austria defends correctly, France cannot take Spain. Y...
by Tugster
Sun Jan 19, 2020 12:07 am
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: 1v1 Puzzles
Replies: 86
Views: 5017

Re: 1v1 Puzzles

I will tell you some actual probability 1 events.

Someday, each of us will die. => probably 1

If princess leia is ejected into space from the bridge of her star-ship, her body will explode. probability 1

Shall I go on?
by Tugster
Sun Jan 19, 2020 12:04 am
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: 1v1 Puzzles
Replies: 86
Views: 5017

Re: 1v1 Puzzles

It's the same bullshit, me thinks that someone does not understand what probability 1 is, there is no certain way for France to win, he has to guess. If Austrian guesses right for enough turns, he then writes the mods and forces a draw. France does not get infinite guesses. And if Austrian guesses r...
by Tugster
Fri Jan 17, 2020 11:55 pm
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: 1v1 Puzzles
Replies: 86
Views: 5017

Re: 1v1 Puzzles

MH Smith goes over it well again. CLEARLY, there is no 100% certain way for France to win. He has to take risk to make a guess to go for the win, and if Austria counter guesses correctly at that moment, Austria can win. The guesses are in fact in France's favor, but not in a certain way. It's not pr...
by Tugster
Fri Jan 17, 2020 6:28 pm
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: 1v1 Puzzles
Replies: 86
Views: 5017

Re: 1v1 Puzzles

and as soon as you say this:

But it is true (and maybe to mention as a hint for other players), that if you impose a turn limit, then there is a positive probability that Austria will get a draw or a win.

you admit that it's not probability 1
by Tugster
Fri Jan 17, 2020 6:17 pm
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: 1v1 Puzzles
Replies: 86
Views: 5017

Re: 1v1 Puzzles

and the example of random numbers between 0 and 1 being rational is really not applicable here, because in that example, we are talking about infinitesimal small chances of hitting a rational number, in the limit zero. In this game, the chances of Austrian getting his guess right and taking Berlin a...
by Tugster
Fri Jan 17, 2020 6:15 pm
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: 1v1 Puzzles
Replies: 86
Views: 5017

Re: 1v1 Puzzles

It's pretty clear from this lengthy analysis by MHSMith that it is not probability 1, it's not 100%. Because one of those ifs and guesses goes the other way, the French game crumbles, with distinct non zero probabilities of an Austrian win. And when you go into all the iterations, it is totally crys...
by Tugster
Fri Jan 17, 2020 10:16 am
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: 1v1 Puzzles
Replies: 86
Views: 5017

Re: 1v1 Puzzles

and do this every turn, Each turn going forward forever, France decides on his moves first, then tell Austria, then Austria writes his moves. France will never get SC 18 in this scenario. If Austria guesses right forever, Austria will never lose. Yes, this is unlikely, but it is NOT 100% for France,...
by Tugster
Fri Jan 17, 2020 9:58 am
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: 1v1 Puzzles
Replies: 86
Views: 5017

Re: 1v1 Puzzles

puzzle 3 is bullshit, there is no move set for France that will give a win with 100% certainty, none, but it is also not a stalemate, it is a series of guesses, and France might win, if he guesses well, but Austria might achieve a stalemate, if he guesses well. Probably 1 means "In all cases" with p...
by Tugster
Fri Nov 15, 2019 3:51 pm
Forum: Face to Face Diplomacy
Topic: webDip Player Map
Replies: 140
Views: 22025

Re: webDip Player Map

I am in Ann Arbor, Michigan. Color Blue, go Blue!

Hail to the Victors!
by Tugster
Tue Nov 05, 2019 2:54 am
Forum: Feedback/Bug Reports
Topic: Misnamed territory
Replies: 10
Views: 3657

Re: Misnamed territory

and Marseilles is NOT spelled with an 's' at the end either.
by Tugster
Wed Sep 25, 2019 1:19 am
Forum: Diplomacy Advice
Topic: Has Diplomacy Regressed to Just Lying?
Replies: 46
Views: 6086

Re: Has Diplomacy Regressed to Just Lying?

David, my real name is Doug Burgoyne.
by Tugster
Wed Sep 25, 2019 1:18 am
Forum: Diplomacy Advice
Topic: Has Diplomacy Regressed to Just Lying?
Replies: 46
Views: 6086

Re: Has Diplomacy Regressed to Just Lying?

David Cohen, how are you? I have played since 1979, we lied our asses off...
by Tugster
Sat Sep 21, 2019 12:57 pm
Forum: Diplomacy Advice
Topic: Is a unit able to fight after its retreat
Replies: 5
Views: 3602

Re: Is a unit able to fight after its retreat

you should not be using the word "retreat" in your question. Serbia tried to move to Greece, and it failed to move to Greece, so it is still in Serbia, but this is not a "retreat" at all, it's a failure to move, so it is still in Serbia, defending itself at strength 1. It would have be be attacked b...
by Tugster
Mon Sep 16, 2019 2:04 pm
Forum: Announcements
Topic: AI bots on webDiplomacy: Skynet edition!
Replies: 171
Views: 59082

Re: AI bots on webDiplomacy: Skynet edition!

I have played three times, once as England, France and Germany, solo every time. Bots show zero long term awareness of impending solos, continuing to attack their nearest neighbor even while I am passing through 14 or 15 SC on the way to solo. I am a very experienced gunboat player and the bots are ...
by Tugster
Sat Sep 14, 2019 11:52 am
Forum: Tournaments
Topic: Introducing the first ever webDiplomacy Terminator Tournament!
Replies: 272
Views: 35225

Re: Introducing the first ever webDiplomacy Terminator Tournament!

Do the bots KNOW which player is the human, or do they assume that all players are bot or human, without knowing?