Search found 292 matches

by RoganJosh
Sat Feb 15, 2020 12:07 am
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: The truth about the new forum
Replies: 102
Views: 2543

Re: The truth about the new forum

the implication that you should keep your mouth shut unless you are a donator is kinda bullshit. You are right. But this is also your deliberate misinterpretation. He only pointed out that making a rethorical point about server space being cheap yet refusing to contribute is also bullshit. Let me e...
by RoganJosh
Fri Feb 14, 2020 10:16 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: The truth about the new forum
Replies: 102
Views: 2543

Re: The truth about the new forum

I don't see a donor star of whatever color in the profile of the poster. So what, you smug fuck? A prime example of a forum regular being an asshole against a forum newcomer for no reason. Octavius comment was appropriate and enough. Jam - are you expecting you forum bro's to come pat your back? Be...
by RoganJosh
Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:06 pm
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: 1v1 Puzzles
Replies: 70
Views: 3068

Re: 1v1 Puzzles

And as I've clarified an a number of occasions, the phrase "probability" should be understood in the sense of a natural density. Which is the canonical interpretation in probabilistic number theory. (Which is where you deal with statements of the form "What is the probability that two natural number...
by RoganJosh
Sat Feb 08, 2020 11:39 am
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: 1v1 Puzzles
Replies: 70
Views: 3068

Re: 1v1 Puzzles

Puzzle 3: To begin: the French waiting move is: France Waiting Move (FW) Bur > Mun supported by Ruh Ber Kie and BAL support Ber H To make the situation simpler, France will begin by playing the waiting move, picking up the English SC's and placing armies in Sweden and Norway. We assume that Austria...
by RoganJosh
Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:33 am
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: 1v1 Puzzles
Replies: 70
Views: 3068

Re: 1v1 Puzzles

Puzzle 5 France will consider the following moves: France Waiting Move (FW): Gas Bur supports Mar H MAO > Spa supported by Por and Mar (NAO > MAO supported by IRI and ENG) France's Gascony Attack (FG) Gas > Spa supported by Por MAO > WMS France Marseilles Attack (FM) Mar > Spa supported by Gas & Po...
by RoganJosh
Sat Feb 08, 2020 9:54 am
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: 1v1 Puzzles
Replies: 70
Views: 3068

Re: 1v1 Puzzles

Solutions It's well about time to post solutions to these. Let's beign with the most interesting one - Puzzle 3 and its simpler versions. The 2x2 versions had one solution posted here: This is the 2x2 game. France only choice is which turn to play the attacking move. When he plays the attacking mov...
by RoganJosh
Sat Feb 08, 2020 6:08 am
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: The truth about the new forum
Replies: 102
Views: 2543

Re: The truth about the new forum

The most exciting thing that happened on vDip's forum last week was that someone realized that the v in vDip stands for "variant."
by RoganJosh
Tue Feb 04, 2020 8:32 am
Forum: Diplomacy Advice
Topic: FvA openings
Replies: 1
Views: 197

FvA openings

I have updated captainmeme's old article on FvA openings! https://captainmeme.wordpress.com/2020/02/03/france-vs-austria-openings-2020-update-by-roganjosh/ Besides just extending the text (in particular with respect to Fall 01 continuations), the biggest changes are that the Italian opening has been...
by RoganJosh
Thu Jan 30, 2020 5:16 pm
Forum: Diplomacy Advice
Topic: Starting positions
Replies: 25
Views: 1643

Re: Starting positions

It is easier for experienced player to handle a situation which is unbalanced, for experienced players can identify strong and weak positions. What are the benefits of a custom start, in terms of game dynamics? In my view, more possible outcomes, less predictable from the very beginning. If the stud...
by RoganJosh
Mon Jan 27, 2020 4:20 pm
Forum: Diplomacy Advice
Topic: Starting positions
Replies: 25
Views: 1643

Re: Starting positions

What are the benefits of a custom start, in terms of game dynamics?
by RoganJosh
Thu Jan 23, 2020 5:59 pm
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: 1v1 Puzzles
Replies: 70
Views: 3068

Re: 1v1 Puzzles

If you impose a turn limit N, then there are Nash equilibria. But the pure strategy space will have size 2^N (in the 2x2 game; it consists of all sequences of length N with entries 0 and 1), so I don't think it will make sense to talk about the limit of the equilibrium strategies. PPPS You can proba...
by RoganJosh
Thu Jan 23, 2020 5:17 pm
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: 1v1 Puzzles
Replies: 70
Views: 3068

Re: 1v1 Puzzles

You are confusing probabilities and strategies again. The probability distribution which describes the process of choosing an integer uniformly at random on the interval [0,N] converges as a function (to the function which is identically zero), but it does not converge as a probability distribution ...
by RoganJosh
Thu Jan 23, 2020 4:01 pm
Forum: Off Topic
Topic: Eating Snow
Replies: 24
Views: 1374

Re: Eating Snow

I think, if it is yellow, then it is healthy.
by RoganJosh
Thu Jan 23, 2020 2:54 pm
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: 1v1 Puzzles
Replies: 70
Views: 3068

Re: 1v1 Puzzles

The problem is, we can't just "take the limit" because there is no such thing as "the limit"--there are two different limits. There is the limit of the strategies, and the limit of the probabilities. You have not disclosed what you solution is, so I have not been able to check it for correctness. B...
by RoganJosh
Wed Jan 22, 2020 12:25 pm
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: 1v1 Puzzles
Replies: 70
Views: 3068

Re: 1v1 Puzzles

I think you fundamentally misunderstand that website, or misunderstand how a clever Austria could counter an aggressive France. These are not measure 0 possibilities of being outguessed and losing Berlin or Marseille. It sounds like you consider one specific turn, and that you assume that France wi...
by RoganJosh
Tue Jan 21, 2020 7:39 pm
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: 1v1 Puzzles
Replies: 70
Views: 3068

Re: 1v1 Puzzles

Squigs44 wrote:
Tue Jan 21, 2020 6:22 pm
Are we not posting public guesses for number 3, or can I give it a shot?
You are more than welcome to, Mr Smith and Bozo have both chipped in so far.

Notice that Puzzle 5 is a scaled down version with the same type of solution, but which requires less work.
by RoganJosh
Tue Jan 21, 2020 7:37 pm
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: 1v1 Puzzles
Replies: 70
Views: 3068

Re: 1v1 Puzzles

RoganJosh wrote:
Sat Jan 18, 2020 12:40 pm
Maybe to clarify, this is exactly how "by probability 1" should be interpreted:
bartogian wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 11:01 am
P.S. For those confused, a probability 1 win means that for all p<1, France can find a strategy that wins with probability at least p.
Jay, this is the post that you originally replied to.
by RoganJosh
Tue Jan 21, 2020 4:04 pm
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: 1v1 Puzzles
Replies: 70
Views: 3068

Re: 1v1 Puzzles

Yeah, one of the intentions with the puzzle was to make people aware of that! :-)
by RoganJosh
Mon Jan 20, 2020 11:26 pm
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: 1v1 Puzzles
Replies: 70
Views: 3068

Re: 1v1 Puzzles

We are discussing the meaning of the sentence France wins by probability 1. Your interpretation is that this sentence is equivalent to "France has a strategy whose expected payoff is 1." You have not provided any arguments for why your interpretation is reasonable. My interpretation is that this sen...
by RoganJosh
Mon Jan 20, 2020 9:30 am
Forum: Diplomacy Strategy
Topic: 1v1 Puzzles
Replies: 70
Views: 3068

Re: 1v1 Puzzles

Tugster wrote:
Sun Jan 19, 2020 5:54 pm
I agree with, but that's not how this puzzle is set up.
Oh, but it is! You should try again.