No Deal Brexit

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Expand view Topic review: No Deal Brexit

Re: No Deal Brexit

by orathaic » Mon Oct 26, 2020 10:00 am

https://twitter.com/aylwyn_scally/statu ... 78018?s=19

Northern Ireland Protocol to exclude NI goods from EU free trade agreements (of which there are many) and include them in UK ftas (of which there is 1 signed).

I suspect this will devestate the NI economy. And UK will continue to subsidise them greatly. In an earlier time I would have called it intentional economic sabotage, but I think this is simple negligence.

Re: No Deal Brexit

by Octavious » Fri Oct 23, 2020 8:38 pm

I'm saying that whether they did or not doesn't matter. Very few people read the papers, and of those who do most skip the politics. Find me evidence that what Boris has said made any significant difference to public opinion. It is not the topic of conversation on people's lips. People are talking about the lockdown in Wales, the second wave, how Christmas will be impacted, and the football. Brexit isn't getting a look in except in the circles of those poor few enthusiastic Party members who talk about nothing else.

Re: No Deal Brexit

by orathaic » Fri Oct 23, 2020 8:20 pm

Oct, are you saying the papers didn't pickup on Johnson's s declaration and put it on the front page? I mean, I'm assuming g here that some people heard but I have been wrong before.

Re: No Deal Brexit

by Octavious » Fri Oct 23, 2020 3:46 pm

orathaic wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 2:51 pm
Octavious wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:49 pm
:lol:

So in what sense, Peter, do you believe that the situation is different to what it was a few weeks ago before ora started this thread?
The British public are perhaps more ready to blame the EU for no deal when it comes.

While Johnson deploys some plausible deniability.
What do you base that on? The pro-Brexit lot and the pro-Remain remnants are largely unchanged. The vast majority of the regular people haven't been paying any attention for months. If you have information that suggests otherwise, feel free to share.

Ultimately the EU were always going to push for a far harder line than they'd accept, as if negotiations carried on to the last minute under current rules they don't lose anything, and if the UK agreed to their hard-line stance they win significantly. No real difference from the British position, for that matter.

Re: No Deal Brexit

by orathaic » Fri Oct 23, 2020 2:51 pm

Octavious wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:49 pm
:lol:

So in what sense, Peter, do you believe that the situation is different to what it was a few weeks ago before ora started this thread?
The British public are perhaps more ready to blame the EU for no deal when it comes.

While Johnson deploys some plausible deniability.

Re: No Deal Brexit

by Octavious » Fri Oct 23, 2020 2:02 pm

But you are largely right that the issue of state aid is the final significant sticking point, and once the UK gives ground on that in exchange for slightly more favourable terms in other areas the deal will be done.

The UK will ultimately give ground on it, of course, because rules on state aid don't really mean anything. Basically what happens under such rules is that you have a company that is struggling, so you give it state money to help it out. Then the EU gets angry and mounts a legal challenge. After several months / years the EU wins, you apologise, and the money is returned. In the meantime the company was either viable, has been saved by the loan of the cash, and can return it happily, or it wasn't viable and is allowed to fail.

It's a trick our good friends the French use time and time again to great effect, and we have all become more European and will act accordingly :-)

Re: No Deal Brexit

by Octavious » Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:49 pm

:lol:

So in what sense, Peter, do you believe that the situation is different to what it was a few weeks ago before ora started this thread?

Re: No Deal Brexit

by peterlund » Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:43 pm

Reading this:
I found:
First of all, there is what is known as the level playing field. That means measures to ensure businesses on one side don't have an unfair advantage over their competitors on the other.

All trade agreements have such measures, but the EU wants the UK to stick particularly closely to EU rules on things like workers' rights, environmental regulations and particularly state aid (financial assistance given by government to businesses).

The UK, on the other hand, says the whole point of Brexit was to break free from following common rules.
This is the MAIN point! There will be no deal unless companies compete on equal terms. And since Boris refuse, no-deal will (and should) be result.

Cherry-picking will not be accepted even if Boris may believe that this is possible. Personally, I think he is just lying to the British people in order to get what he actually wants, the "no-deal", while still being able to blame the EU for the no-deal result.

Re: No Deal Brexit

by Octavious » Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:45 am

It seems not

Re: No Deal Brexit

by orathaic » Thu Oct 22, 2020 12:21 am

You trust Boris Johnson has been cvhastised? Why is that, do you think the greater Manchester areas will be enough to topple this Tory govt?

Re: No Deal Brexit

by Octavious » Wed Oct 21, 2020 5:58 pm

In case anyone hasn't been paying attention, the trade talks are officially restarting tomorrow.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54637128

As I said, nothing of significance has changed. I trust those of you who spent the last week thoroughly over excited and talking utter balderdash about no deal have been suitably chastised and won't speak so rashly in future.

Re: No Deal Brexit

by Octavious » Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:16 am

TheFlyingBoat wrote:
Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:44 pm
Octavious wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:33 pm
Nothing of any significance has changed, so there's nothing worth talking about. I'll comment when there's something worth commenting on. As I said some time ago, this is final stage theatrics.
This is the argument of a man who isn't willing to admit he is wrong but also can't defend the failures of his man. No deal with the EU, no trade deal with America, and continued mismanagement of COVID-19. It was obvious from the moment Brexit happened that the UK had committed suicide and that the UK would never get a favorable deal from the EU.
:lol:

Good God, I wish people would think before they speak these days. Firstly Boris isn't my man. I didn't vote for him in the general election, and I didn't vote for his side in the Brexit referendum. I have said this many times. I suggest that you pay attention to what I say if you're going to comment on it or risk embarrassing yourself.

Secondly, this is also the argument of the EU.
We are prepared to continue negotiating. We have seen light but of course also still shadows in the most recent negotiations, and if it is up to the European Union — and me personally — we should simply continue these talks
Merkel
The negotiations aren't over
Barnier

https://amp.dw.com/en/brexit-angela-mer ... a-55299842

It is extremely depressing quite how popular this rhetoric over facts Trumpian debating style has become on webDip. The threads talking about the US election are full (well, as full as webDip gets these days) of Democrat supports getting overly excited about the thought of Trump facing criminal charges. They might as well start chanting Lock Him Up. If Trump has achieved anything in politics it's to fill the political world with mini Trumps, which will make the election of future Trumps infinitely easier.

Re: No Deal Brexit

by orathaic » Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:37 pm

Octavious wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:33 pm
Nothing of any significance has changed, so there's nothing worth talking about. I'll comment when there's something worth commenting on. As I said some time ago, this is final stage theatrics.
Would that Johnson had taken the same position.

Re: No Deal Brexit

by orathaic » Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:36 pm

TheFlyingBoat wrote:
Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:44 pm
Octavious wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:33 pm
Nothing of any significance has changed, so there's nothing worth talking about. I'll comment when there's something worth commenting on. As I said some time ago, this is final stage theatrics.
This is the argument of a man who isn't willing to admit he is wrong but also can't defend the failures of his man. No deal with the EU, no trade deal with America, and continued mismanagement of COVID-19. It was obvious from the moment Brexit happened that the UK had committed suicide and that the UK would never get a favorable deal from the EU.
We will see personally, I'm interested in how Scotland, and soon after Northern Ireland will do. I suspect the EU will (now) welcome Scotland back into the Union, and Northern Ireland's legally guaranteed option to unite with the Republic means they have automatic EU membership if they choose it.

No Deal however means Scotland creating a customs border with England? That could be messy. How did Canada and the UK's relationship change when Canada went from being an unequal partner in the Empire to an equal part of the commonwealth? Trade relationship at least would have been less important (what with being far far away).

Re: No Deal Brexit

by TheFlyingBoat » Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:44 pm

Octavious wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:33 pm
Nothing of any significance has changed, so there's nothing worth talking about. I'll comment when there's something worth commenting on. As I said some time ago, this is final stage theatrics.
This is the argument of a man who isn't willing to admit he is wrong but also can't defend the failures of his man. No deal with the EU, no trade deal with America, and continued mismanagement of COVID-19. It was obvious from the moment Brexit happened that the UK had committed suicide and that the UK would never get a favorable deal from the EU.

Re: No Deal Brexit

by MajorMitchell » Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:16 pm

As long as you keep Bojo the Clown away from English Cricket you might still have a slight chance of winning the Ashes. It looks like we will have plenty of Barley, Fine Wines and other export products to sell to our European friends.

Re: No Deal Brexit

by Jamiet99uk » Sun Oct 18, 2020 5:02 pm

Octavious wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:01 pm
Jamiet99uk wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:56 pm
See I said that would happen.
That’s a remarkably blatant lie, even for you :lol:
It was in the general direction of the truth

Re: No Deal Brexit

by Szpoti » Sun Oct 18, 2020 3:51 pm

peterlund wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:56 pm
The UK should approach EU with the hat in its hands, and ask gracefully for what deal the EU may offer you. When you then are told what you can get, you should accept that offered deal while displaying lots of gratitude to keep EU leaders pleased.
As a Brit (am I one really?), I couldn't agree more.

Re: No Deal Brexit

by Octavious » Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:01 pm

Jamiet99uk wrote:
Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:56 pm
See I said that would happen.
That’s a remarkably blatant lie, even for you :lol:

Re: No Deal Brexit

by peterlund » Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:56 pm

The UK should approach EU with the hat in its hands, and ask gracefully for what deal the EU may offer you. When you then are told what you can get, you should accept that offered deal while displaying lots of gratitude to keep EU leaders pleased.

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