Trump tests positive to covid

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Expand view Topic review: Trump tests positive to covid

Re: Trump tests positive to covid

by Matticus13 » Wed Oct 07, 2020 9:18 pm

orathaic wrote:
Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:36 pm
NYexit anyone?
Oof. Don't even joke about the train wreck that would be...

Re: Trump tests positive to covid

by orathaic » Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:36 pm

In fairness, the pre-covid American system hurts the poor the most too, so at least the pandemic responce is consistent.

The US being able to respond to Covid to help the worst hit would require them not to be the US. Like if individual states took charge of a bigger chunk of their budgets, NYC could target more at their education system, social housing and spending to end poverty. Allowing the more progressive areas on the east and west coasts break free of the Union... But that seems like a pipe dream to me.

NYexit anyone?

Re: Trump tests positive to covid

by RoganJosh » Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:10 am

I actually live in Chicago now.

But this isn't only in the US. School closures are happening all over. I only used the US numbers to put things in perspective. You have what, 230 000 dead in the US now? It is awful. But a generation of poor children missing out on their education, that's 13 million children suffering consequences for the rest of their lives. Their loss in life expectancy outweights the covid deaths by what, 100:1? That's a much worse disaster than covid.

I have no clue what you mean by 'solving covid'. It is plausible that this will go on for another year or two no matter what.

I do agree that the US government has failed miserably when it comes to information and when it comes to support for the poor. That is a big problem, which _also_ needs to be solved But children are not at risk, and there does not seem to be any cost for society associated with opening schools.

Re: Trump tests positive to covid

by flash2015 » Wed Oct 07, 2020 2:08 am

RoganJosh wrote:
Wed Oct 07, 2020 1:42 am
Flash, I wrote a post about children from poor families being the big losers from school closures. And they are. Whether parents of poor families are afraid of sending the kids back to school or not doesn't change that. But you're perfectly right in that the poor has been hit the hardest. And the US response so far has been abysmal.
You wrote a post on how you think it is in the US. I live here, you don't. And I have personal experience because my wife works in the NYC school system which likely has one of the largest percentage of poor kids in the nation. I am telling you you don't know what you are talking about.

How can school closures be hurting the poor the most if they aren't going to turn up anyway because the response has been so bad? You don't solve the problem by just saying schools should be open whatever the cost. To really solve the schooling problem for poor kids you need to solve COVID.

Re: Trump tests positive to covid

by RoganJosh » Wed Oct 07, 2020 1:42 am

Flash, I wrote a post about children from poor families being the big losers from school closures. And they are. Whether parents of poor families are afraid of sending the kids back to school or not doesn't change that. But you're perfectly right in that the poor has been hit the hardest. And the US response so far has been abysmal.

Re: Trump tests positive to covid

by Randomizer » Wed Oct 07, 2020 12:26 am

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/apparen ... 00837.html
The truth about Trump getting COVID-19. He is or is working for our alien overlords doing Satan's work to take over the world.

Re: Trump tests positive to covid

by flash2015 » Tue Oct 06, 2020 7:30 pm

RoganJosh wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 2:33 pm
I also wished more people would acknowledge that in a pandemic, there are no good choices. Whatever strategy you choose, people will suffer and people will die. You can minimize, but you can't avoid. The question is who and when. The current lockdown approach has been effective in shielding the middle and upper classes. It is the poor, and in particular the children of poor families, who've had to absorb all the risk. School closures is the most egregious example. The US alone has about 13 million poor children. For most of them, online education means no education, due to lack of parental support. And one year shorter education is associated with about 1.7 years shorter life expectancy. Yes, yes, very rough estimates, not all children are school age, etc. But what is clear is that children from poor families will suffer the consequences for the rest of their lives. They've been thrown under the bus.
You are right. There were no good choices...and I don't think there is one right strategy for everyone. I wish that it had not become so politically toxic.

However, I think your understanding of how COVID affected the poor in the US is wrong...and your narrative is completely ass-backward. The poor have been the hardest hit by COVID by far. The poor have the worst pre-existing conditions which leave them most at risk. Many of the poor, especially in the cities, live in multi-generational households...if a kid brings home COVID they are at really at risk of killing grandma.

I know this from our personal experience. My wife works in the Bronx in a neighbourhood which I realize had not only has one of the highest death rates in the country but of the entire planet. Before the shutdown occurred, these families were already pulling their kids out of school. Even though all kids can now go physically to the classroom (at least part-time), most are choosing not to. By latest count I think my wife told me there were 20 kids out of potentially several hundred physically in the building.

Given how bad it is has been, many people in these poor neighbourhoods are still very afraid of the virus. They aren't willing to send their kids back to school. They aren't complaining about the schools being closed. The ones complaining the most about school closings are the white middle and upper classes which didn't have as bad an experience with COVID. You can decree all you want that schools should be open and "tut-tut" about it allegedly hurting the poor the most..but that is no good if the response has been so messed up that the poor people have no confidence in their safety if they do send their kids back to the physical classrooms.

Re: Trump tests positive to covid

by Randomizer » Tue Oct 06, 2020 3:46 pm

https://news.yahoo.com/report-white-hou ... 00992.html
White House is pushing to release a vaccine without the standard testing for side effects and safety. Want it available before the election even if it could make users worse.

Re: Trump tests positive to covid

by Randomizer » Tue Oct 06, 2020 3:41 pm

However children in poor families that get sick are more likely to receive poorer medical care due to minimal health insurance and hospitals being less likely to exam and treat persons of color. Even getting a test to confirm the diagnosis is harder for them.

After a public outcry, Phoenix, Arizona hospitals ended a plan that would decide if patients were worth getting medical care based on their previous health and age. If you were disabled or too old, they wouldn't treat to save beds for richer and younger patients.

https://www.abc15.com/news/coronavirus/ ... -care-plan

Re: Trump tests positive to covid

by RoganJosh » Tue Oct 06, 2020 2:33 pm

@Oct I would still say that ignoring is stupid. But, yes, yes, agreed. If your median age is 14 and you have fragile food supply chains (e.g., Subsaharan Africa), then lockdowns have almost no positive effects and potentially disastrous negative effects. I think Oxfam in August projected some 120 million people will be pushed to the brink of starvation by the end of this year due to lockdown measures in India/Africa/South America.
Octavious wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 9:36 am
Shelter in place is just at a more extreme end of the spectrum, and seems to be a massive gamble on an effective vaccine being developed and rolled out sooner rather than later.
Agree with this too. Every strategy (except ignoring) is a bet on when a vaccine/effective treatment will be publicly available. When lockdowns were introduced, there was a lot of wishful thinking about a vaccine being available in November, and strategies were chosen assuming this. Now, there is a lot of wishful thinking of a vaccine being available in the Spring. Who knows.

I also wished more people would acknowledge that in a pandemic, there are no good choices. Whatever strategy you choose, people will suffer and people will die. You can minimize, but you can't avoid. The question is who and when. The current lockdown approach has been effective in shielding the middle and upper classes. It is the poor, and in particular the children of poor families, who've had to absorb all the risk. School closures is the most egregious example. The US alone has about 13 million poor children. For most of them, online education means no education, due to lack of parental support. And one year shorter education is associated with about 1.7 years shorter life expectancy. Yes, yes, very rough estimates, not all children are school age, etc. But what is clear is that children from poor families will suffer the consequences for the rest of their lives. They've been thrown under the bus.

Re: Trump tests positive to covid

by Jamiet99uk » Tue Oct 06, 2020 1:38 pm

Octavious wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 11:40 am
Oh, those blackshirted thugs. It's increasingly difficult to tell them apart.
I disagree. If you don't know the difference I suggest you pay more attention.

Re: Trump tests positive to covid

by Octavious » Tue Oct 06, 2020 11:40 am

Oh, those blackshirted thugs. It's increasingly difficult to tell them apart.

Re: Trump tests positive to covid

by Jamiet99uk » Tue Oct 06, 2020 11:14 am

Octavious wrote:
Mon Oct 05, 2020 4:54 pm
People who march around in black shirts destroying things and beating people up? No, I think you'll find Black Lives Matter lean more towards the Democrats.
No, prick, I mean the Nazis who openly support Trump, and who he encourages and retweets.

Re: Trump tests positive to covid

by Octavious » Tue Oct 06, 2020 9:36 am

RoganJosh wrote:
Mon Oct 05, 2020 10:04 pm
Herd immunity is not a strategy, it is an end-state
Agreed, but I don't think anyone suggested otherwise
RoganJosh wrote:
Mon Oct 05, 2020 10:04 pm
Ignoring the virus is a (stupid) strategy, which leads to herd immunity.
Ah, now this seems to depend largely on where you are. South Africa, for example, has done massive amounts of damage to their economy and are suffering from the huge resulting harm after implementing a Western style lockdown early on. When they eventually turned their lockdown off, largely due to lack of resources, they discovered that the impact of covid was a tiny fraction of that experienced elsewhere. Quite why is fully understood, but may well have do do with factors such as younger populations, greater exposure to vitamin D, greater exposure to similar viruses, less urbanisation, and so on and so forth. In their case ignoring the virus would have been a far superior strategy to what they actually did.
RoganJosh wrote:
Mon Oct 05, 2020 10:04 pm
Bending the curve is a strategy, which leads to heard immunity.
Sheltering in place until a vaccine is available is a strategy, which leads to heard immunity.
Indeed, and really these flattening the curve strategies are a massive spectrum of strategies from which the entire western world has subscribed to in some form. Shelter in place is just at a more extreme end of the spectrum, and seems to be a massive gamble on an effective vaccine being developed and rolled out sooner rather than later. Although the reality is that every strategy is a gamble based on incomplete information, with the nations of the world nervously waiting to see how badly they've lost.

Re: Trump tests positive to covid

by RoganJosh » Tue Oct 06, 2020 1:50 am

Yes, yes, agree. But that is really an argument in favor of the shelter in place strategy.

And those gains should of course be weighted against the harms caused by the lockdown measures.

And notice the dynamic. The better treatment, the less is there to gain from sheltering in place, the more should you move to a flatten the curve strategy.

Re: Trump tests positive to covid

by flash2015 » Mon Oct 05, 2020 11:25 pm

RoganJosh wrote:
Mon Oct 05, 2020 10:59 pm
You cannot exterminate the virus from a single country. New Zeeland "success" would have to be followed by isolation from the rest of the world for the rest of time. Good luck.

In practice, New Zeeland has only taken the "shelter in place until a vaccine" strategy to its extreme. But by presenting it as an extermination strategy, their government has avoided having to defend the downsides of such a strategy.

I don't see what masks has to do with intentionally spreading the virus.
There are some significant upsides though. Sweden has 583 in 1M death rate vs 5 in 1M death rate in NZ. Even if there is no vaccine and NZ have to relax restrictions they would never catch Sweden because medical treatment for COVID is so much better now. Of course the strategy is only feasible because NZ is an isolated island and they have complete control over their borders.

Re: Trump tests positive to covid

by RoganJosh » Mon Oct 05, 2020 10:59 pm

You cannot exterminate the virus from a single country. New Zeeland "success" would have to be followed by isolation from the rest of the world for the rest of time. Good luck.

In practice, New Zeeland has only taken the "shelter in place until a vaccine" strategy to its extreme. But by presenting it as an extermination strategy, their government has avoided having to defend the downsides of such a strategy.

I don't see what masks has to do with intentionally spreading the virus.

Re: Trump tests positive to covid

by orathaic » Mon Oct 05, 2020 10:31 pm

@Roganjosh, I don't know New Zealand seems to be doing a pretty good job of eliminating the virus...

The point of using masks for your strategy, *IF* you can guarantee that 95% of the infected will be asymptomatic (in the healthy workers sampled at those factories) then you can suggest intentionally spreading the virus, knowing that only 5% (in this healthy group) will even show symptoms, and even less will need hospitalisation... Now get 70% of the population to recover from asymptomatic infections and the herd is fairly immune (again, assuming this virus is one which leaves long term immunity, not like a cold or flu virus...). If you can do this fast enough you can save lives and money.

Unfortunately we don't have enough information to guarantee any of this, and infecting people intentionally (especially without their consent) is reckless.

Re: Trump tests positive to covid

by RoganJosh » Mon Oct 05, 2020 10:04 pm

Herd immunity is not a strategy, it is an end-state.

Ignoring the virus is a (stupid) strategy, which leads to herd immunity.
Bending the curve is a strategy, which leads to heard immunity.
Sheltering in place until a vaccine is available is a strategy, which leads to heard immunity.

Trying to exterminate the virus is a strategy. It's the only strategy which do not lead to herd immunity. And it's the only strategy which is doomed to fail. This is the most stupid strategy of them all.

Re: Trump tests positive to covid

by taylor4 » Mon Oct 05, 2020 8:57 pm

:evil: :sick: :?:

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