Let's Fix Russia's Gunboat Woes

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Expand view Topic review: Let's Fix Russia's Gunboat Woes

Re: Let's Fix Russia's Gunboat Woes

by pyxxy » Tue Sep 24, 2019 10:02 pm

Doug7878 wrote:
Mon Jul 15, 2019 6:12 pm
So, how does @naked do so well as Russia?

Examples (wins):
gameID=222920
gameID=168341
gameID=169363
gameID=165366
Examples (draws):
gameID=170461
gameID=168094
gameID=160312
I "started" looking at these games, meaning I made a google sheet that I'll forget about in a few days...but anyone with this link can edit it.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

Re: Let's Fix Russia's Gunboat Woes

by stoppikls » Mon Sep 23, 2019 6:50 pm

My approach is the following. In my opinion Germany is the strongest power in gunboats, Russia is the weakest. So the only thing I would do is give some extra power to Russia at the expense of Germany.

Re: Let's Fix Russia's Gunboat Woes

by Chaqa » Mon Jul 15, 2019 6:12 pm

I mean, we're just throwing ideas out there. They aren't all guaranteed to be good :cry:

Re: Let's Fix Russia's Gunboat Woes

by Doug7878 » Mon Jul 15, 2019 6:12 pm

So, how does @naked do so well as Russia?

Examples (wins):
gameID=222920
gameID=168341
gameID=169363
gameID=165366
Examples (draws):
gameID=170461
gameID=168094
gameID=160312

Re: Let's Fix Russia's Gunboat Woes

by Claesar » Mon Jul 15, 2019 5:54 pm

Ah, Russia moving to Armenia. I misunderstood.

Won't Turkey just order BLA-Rum S Bul, Con-Ank? What's your move to counter that?

Re: Let's Fix Russia's Gunboat Woes

by Chaqa » Mon Jul 15, 2019 4:41 pm

If Turkey moves the fleet back to cover Ankara.

Re: Let's Fix Russia's Gunboat Woes

by Claesar » Mon Jul 15, 2019 4:30 pm

Chaqa wrote:
Mon Jul 15, 2019 4:17 pm
What about a Spring 01 move to Armenia, paired with moves to Ukraine and Sevastopol? Turkey rarely moves to Armenia, and this would then put Turkey in a weekend positioned against Austria and hopefully allow a small chance at taking the Black Sea by a follow up to Black Sea in the Autumn while you take Rumania from Ukraine or Sevastopol.
How does Russia have a chance to take Black Sea? They're not even guaranteed Rumania at that point.

Re: Let's Fix Russia's Gunboat Woes

by Chaqa » Mon Jul 15, 2019 4:17 pm

What about a Spring 01 move to Armenia, paired with moves to Ukraine and Sevastopol? Turkey rarely moves to Armenia, and this would then put Turkey in a weekend positioned against Austria and hopefully allow a small chance at taking the Black Sea by a follow up to Black Sea in the Autumn while you take Rumania from Ukraine or Sevastopol.

Re: Let's Fix Russia's Gunboat Woes

by Carl Tuckerson » Tue Jun 11, 2019 10:47 pm

swordsman3003 wrote:
Tue Jun 11, 2019 10:03 am
Carl Tuckerson wrote:
Tue Jun 11, 2019 9:28 am
More importantly I'm not sure it's so easy for Turkey to just build in Ankara to counter the telegraphed threat (which I agree is telegraphed rather gracelessly). Italy's most common opening by a significant margin is the Lepanto. Can Turkey really afford not to build a fleet in Smyrna and ignore the threat Italy poses? Italy suddenly has a wide open lane to executing a successful Lepanto. Rather than triggering Austria and Italy to stop attacking Turkey, my concern with this opening is actually that you get into a race with Italy over the centers.
I stand by everything I said, and also question whether you have experience building a second fleet as Russia. I tried that many times when I was first learning to play Diplomacy (gosh maybe even back when I played on Facebook?) and realized how terrible a plan that is for Gunboat.

You say that Lepanto is the most common Gunboat opening for Italy, but the way you’re expressing that point makes it sound like you think Italy is locked into a Lepanto or will stubbornly do so regardless of what else happens on the board. I know you don’t really think that, which is why I question whether you have thought out or experienced the scenario you’re hypothesizing here. The strategic reason why Italy makes or threatens to make a Lepanto so commonly at the start is the danger of a juggernaut, or at least Turkey being the biggest threat. If that’s not true, why would Italy mechanically execute a plan based on that assumption?

If Russia communicates to the board that Russia is all-in on attacking Turkey, Italy now faces the serious danger of Austria allying with Russia — that’s the point of Russia doing this right, to ally Austria? So how does Austria understand that you are attempting an A/R alliance without Italy picking up on that intention, in Gunboat? Why would Italy send away units needed to defend against Austria if that comes to pass? Why would Italy harass the best counter-weight to an Austria/Russia alliance?

With this in mind, Turkey can absolutely afford to build a fleet to counter the clear-and-present danger of a Russia who locked himself into war with Turkey. Nearly all experienced Gunboaters react to to current threats over hypothetical ones. And even if Turkey doesn’t build a fleet to hold onto Black Sea, what I’m saying is that Turkey can block Russia’s advances easily. Your concern that another power would end up with the Turkish centers despite Russia’s efforts is a realistic one.
I think convoying to Tunis is as much a current threat as Russia moving a fleet to Romania. The situation at least seemed mirrored to me, with Russia and Italy both posing a threat to Turkey that requires a fleet build in response, and with Austria having the ability to attack either of Russia or Italy, so presuming that Turkey will always react against the Russian threat instead of the Italian one doesn't sit right with me.

~~~

You certainly have a point that the follow-up is telegraphed though. In which case, is there a way to avoid telegraphing it? If Russia had to take Romania with a fleet, because it didn't have an army in Ukraine after the first turn, would that still set off alarms for Turkey?

I'm thinking of one of Russia's "northern" openings, where the army in Moscow goes to St. Petersburg, but the units in Warsaw and Sevastopol move to Galicia and Black Sea respectively, in order to bounce.

My guess is that Turkey would at a minimum be annoyed by the fact that one of the armies that "should" be attacking Austria has instead moved north, and that letting an annoyed Turkey bounce Romania is terrible for Russia.

Re: Let's Fix Russia's Gunboat Woes

by naked » Tue Jun 11, 2019 6:08 pm

I dont know why there is so much antipathy for Russia in gunboat. Russia is a fine country and doesnt need any fix. It has a unique starting position with a big drawback (basically it is split in two), but also some big advantages (one more SC at the start, already on both sides of the stalemate line). What Russia really needs is a good player, but that applies to every country.

Re: Let's Fix Russia's Gunboat Woes

by swordsman3003 » Tue Jun 11, 2019 4:33 pm

I should add that I approve of this project and will add something creative and positive when it occurs to me. I’m not defeatist; we could improve gunboat and I think this is a very good way to do it.

Re: Let's Fix Russia's Gunboat Woes

by swordsman3003 » Tue Jun 11, 2019 10:03 am

Carl Tuckerson wrote:
Tue Jun 11, 2019 9:28 am
More importantly I'm not sure it's so easy for Turkey to just build in Ankara to counter the telegraphed threat (which I agree is telegraphed rather gracelessly). Italy's most common opening by a significant margin is the Lepanto. Can Turkey really afford not to build a fleet in Smyrna and ignore the threat Italy poses? Italy suddenly has a wide open lane to executing a successful Lepanto. Rather than triggering Austria and Italy to stop attacking Turkey, my concern with this opening is actually that you get into a race with Italy over the centers.
I stand by everything I said, and also question whether you have experience building a second fleet as Russia. I tried that many times when I was first learning to play Diplomacy (gosh maybe even back when I played on Facebook?) and realized how terrible a plan that is for Gunboat.

You say that Lepanto is the most common Gunboat opening for Italy, but the way you’re expressing that point makes it sound like you think Italy is locked into a Lepanto or will stubbornly do so regardless of what else happens on the board. I know you don’t really think that, which is why I question whether you have thought out or experienced the scenario you’re hypothesizing here. The strategic reason why Italy makes or threatens to make a Lepanto so commonly at the start is the danger of a juggernaut, or at least Turkey being the biggest threat. If that’s not true, why would Italy mechanically execute a plan based on that assumption?

If Russia communicates to the board that Russia is all-in on attacking Turkey, Italy now faces the serious danger of Austria allying with Russia — that’s the point of Russia doing this right, to ally Austria? So how does Austria understand that you are attempting an A/R alliance without Italy picking up on that intention, in Gunboat? Why would Italy send away units needed to defend against Austria if that comes to pass? Why would Italy harass the best counter-weight to an Austria/Russia alliance?

With this in mind, Turkey can absolutely afford to build a fleet to counter the clear-and-present danger of a Russia who locked himself into war with Turkey. Nearly all experienced Gunboaters react to to current threats over hypothetical ones. And even if Turkey doesn’t build a fleet to hold onto Black Sea, what I’m saying is that Turkey can block Russia’s advances easily. Your concern that another power would end up with the Turkish centers despite Russia’s efforts is a realistic one.

Re: Let's Fix Russia's Gunboat Woes

by Carl Tuckerson » Tue Jun 11, 2019 9:28 am

Well, I doubt anyone is fantasizing about putting fleets in the Aegean Sea. Just the Black Sea.

I question some of the tactical assertions made. A fleet is worse than an army in Armenia, certainly, but as far as attacking Turkey is concerned, a fleet is just as good as an army in Romania, on the east coast of Bulgaria and in Constantinople. You have to do a little bit of shuffling your units around to get your fleets in Romania and Black Sea, since the most likely route to taking the Black Sea is supporting the Romanian fleet in, not the Sevastopol fleet; but it's not that big a deal, if Austria isn't also attacking you. It's true that this route is bad if Austria attacks you, but that's true of virtually any attack one power can make on another, if an uninvolved third neighbor simultaneously attacks it.

More importantly I'm not sure it's so easy for Turkey to just build in Ankara to counter the telegraphed threat (which I agree is telegraphed rather gracelessly). Italy's most common opening by a significant margin is the Lepanto. Can Turkey really afford not to build a fleet in Smyrna and ignore the threat Italy poses? Italy suddenly has a wide open lane to executing a successful Lepanto. Rather than triggering Austria and Italy to stop attacking Turkey, my concern with this opening is actually that you get into a race with Italy over the centers.

And while armies are better than fleets on defense in the abstract, since they let you project realistic counterattacking options if the circumstances change, if you are truly hunkering down on defense and support holding until someone else can break through, fleets are no worse than armies. Romania ends up as a frontline unit holding, which if you're holding is no different than an army, and there's usually a fleet in Sevastopol supporting Romania anyway. It's worse, yes, but not by that much.

I'm not saying any of these sequences are safe or easy or guaranteed, but the current track Russia is on clearly doesn't work, and we know from press games, where Russia and Austria can hash out their issues, that the Austrian-Russian alliance is very strong. These two facts suggest to me that there's something underexplored in the Russian-Austrian relationship in gunboat and that maybe some of our more conventional assumptions about how things "should" go need more careful examining.

Re: Let's Fix Russia's Gunboat Woes

by swordsman3003 » Tue Jun 11, 2019 2:54 am

Y’all are over-estimating Russia’s ability to take Black Sea by force, and whether it’s even beneficial for Russia to do.

If Russia builds a second southern fleet, then Russia has 2 useless units instead of 1. The intention to attack Turkey is completely telegraphed and Turkey can usually block it or at least defend. The fleet has smaller offensive power compared to an army, since an army is a bigger threat if it gets into Armenia. The fleets have no defensive use if any other power attacks.

If Russia tries to lock down Turkey this way, the result is often enough that other powers deem Turkey contained and stop fighting Turkey; no gunboat Austria or Italy wants Russia to take all the Turkish home centers anyways.

The way to attack Turkey, as Russia, is to seize Black Sea by surprise — to just sail in. Wait for that opportunity. If it doesn’t come, it doesn’t come. If you get a fleet into Black Sea that way, don’t ever leave and support your armies and convoys against Turkey with it. Attack Turkey with armies. It’s unrealistic to fantasize about getting fleets into Aegean Sea as Russia in any match and an outrageous idea in Gunboat.

Re: Let's Fix Russia's Gunboat Woes

by mhsmith0 » Mon Jun 10, 2019 4:29 pm

Probably the best way to fix russia’s gunboat woes is for England to fight France early, or for Germany to auto let Russia into Sweden anytime ENG is vacated (since E/F is super bad for them both). Russia still stays a weak power but that drastically cuts down on how doomed it is.

Re: Let's Fix Russia's Gunboat Woes

by rokakoma » Mon Jun 10, 2019 11:46 am

Claesar wrote:
Mon Jun 10, 2019 9:40 am
rokakoma wrote:
Mon Jun 10, 2019 9:27 am
We CAN change the map, we just don't want to :)
...
Wrong. We can't change the map. Even if we tested it for one million games on vDip and everybody agreed it would be an improvement, we wouldn't change the map here. It's moot to talk about.
Let me rephrase, we can add a new variant, where Finland is an SC. Then the market (aka players) can decide which one do they prefer. If they prefer the new one, 20 years from now, it will be called classic :)

Re: Let's Fix Russia's Gunboat Woes

by Carl Tuckerson » Mon Jun 10, 2019 9:43 am

Another observation I meant to make earlier: I don't think Russia benefits very much from most partitions of Austria in gunboat.

The conventional wisdom for Italian players is that they should avoid attacking Austria early, because otherwise the Russian-Turkish "Juggernaut" alliance will crush Italy after splitting Austria between them, and that Russia and/or Turkey will quickly reverse any gains that Italy makes.

In practice, though, what has Russia accomplished from triumph over Austria? Russia has Sevastopol, Romania, usually Budapest, and sometimes Vienna after the dust settles, but Turkey usually has control of the Black Sea as a consequence of tactical considerations in Autumn 1901, and without the ability to wrest control back, Russia can't leverage any progress made against Austria into a successful attack on Turkey. It's not impossible to take the Black Sea back, but squeezing out a fleet build can be tough for Russians in the middle game. And an attack on Italy strictly overland is unrealistic. Russia runs into the same problem that Austria does: without the ability to contest the Mediterranean, Russia's momentum from annexing Austrian territory stalls without decisive results against the rivals that the annexation elevated into major middle game threats to the Russian position.

Italy and Turkey both have a significant track record of success in converting early conquests of Austria into dominant performances, because they have the ability to contest the region by land and sea, meaning that the winner of their inevitable middle game struggle after conquering Austria will be poised to roll up the entire eastern half of the map. If Russia gets the upper hand on Turkey on land but can't take the Black Sea, Turkey can remain a viable annoyance until the endgame, and can even conspire to cut Russia out of the final draw, once a foreign power like Germany or England brings serious pressure to bear against Russia from the north and west. If Italy gets the upper hand on Turkey, it's usually fatal for Turkey.

Re: Let's Fix Russia's Gunboat Woes

by BobMcBob » Mon Jun 10, 2019 9:42 am

Carl Tuckerson wrote:
Mon Jun 10, 2019 8:52 am
Maybe the issue is less the openings, and more how we react to the information on the board.
This is a very good point. The bounce in Galicia is particularly useful in Spring because if the other person takes Galicia, you are immediately in a very bad position, forced to cover yourself and/or forfeit a build. But the bounce becomes less useful in Autumn. I think Russia really needs to take the initiative on this one, they're in the best position to. If Russia builds a fleet in Sevastopol instead of an army in Moscow, it will not only communicate a less anti-Austrian Russia, but also bring Turkey - one of the strongest gunboat powers - down a notch because it's quite anti-Turkey.
(Good work folks, just wait a few days and we may be seeing some changes).

Re: Let's Fix Russia's Gunboat Woes

by Claesar » Mon Jun 10, 2019 9:40 am

rokakoma wrote:
Mon Jun 10, 2019 9:27 am
We CAN change the map, we just don't want to :)
...
Wrong. We can't change the map. Even if we tested it for one million games on vDip and everybody agreed it would be an improvement, we wouldn't change the map here. It's moot to talk about.

Re: Let's Fix Russia's Gunboat Woes

by rokakoma » Mon Jun 10, 2019 9:27 am

Claesar wrote:
Mon Jun 10, 2019 8:06 am
However, I feel we shouldn't discuss making Finland a supply centre. While an interesting idea, it just isn't going to happen. We can change the meta, but not the map.
We CAN change the map, we just don't want to :). Big difference. We could try it out on vdiplomacy, or elsewhere. I wasn't suggesting changing the "classic" map right away in the live, known-to-everyone environment and still call it classic.

However, making a more balanced map would improve the attractiveness of the game I believe.

Don't forget, the game and the map evolved over the years, decades. Some rules were added, corrected, to improve the game. It wouldn't be a sin to try something, prove whether it's better, and eventually change the map again, for the sake of the game.

While I agree that most, if not all, of the arguments listed by you and the others are valid points, the map in itself is not balanced (and never will be) which is fine of course. To solve that you can either have experience, or make adjustments towards a more balanced version. While understanding the game well comes with experience, learning, etc. which you cannot change, you can still change the odds derived from design imbalances.

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