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Finished: 05 Jul 18 UTC
Private Practice Game-61
1 days, 12 hours /phase (slow)
Pot: 10 D - Autumn, 1906, Finished
Game won by swordsman3003 (10160 D (G))
01 Jul 18 UTC Spring, 1905: I mean, given that all you have to do is mop up the centers behind the battle lines, isn't this a pretty sure victory for you at this point?
01 Jul 18 UTC Autumn, 1905: Beats me, I haven’t been in this kind of game state. Normally it’s bad for Germany if Italy gets Iberia and Marseilles
02 Jul 18 UTC Autumn, 1905: You got me.
02 Jul 18 UTC Autumn, 1905: Even if I could push you in the West, you have too many more centers than I do and are dominant in the East, especially positionally.
02 Jul 18 UTC Autumn, 1905: I think to pull through, you needed to make the guess of attacking Budapest with RUmania supported by Serbia. That would have given you 2 builds, limited me to 1 new unit and destroyed Budapest, probably setting you up to take Trieste. If you had also guessed that I wouldn't attack Marseilles all-out and held Mar with Piedmont, I would have had zero builds and you'd have 3.

So last turn, I couldn't agree that victory was a sure thing, but I didn't want to discuss why because there was still a lot to the guessing we had to make.

You're in worse shape now. This is an unusual gamestate and I don't know enough to say that its impossible for you to fight for a draw. You have the ability to take back Marseilles with ease. If you regain Trieste and Budapest without losing Sevastopol, you can fight for a draw. It's a tall order.
02 Jul 18 UTC Autumn, 1905: All in all, it was an interesting match. I tend to try odd things against you in one on one, figuring that your conventional skills are so much greater than mine that it would be foolish to beat you in ways you might easily predict and counter. Do you think that I should change my approach?
02 Jul 18 UTC Autumn, 1905: I think that in 1v1 games, it's hard to get away with something usual strategically. Sometimes it does work, I have definitely seen that. But usually I think the outcome of the game is determined by incrementally improving one's position by making more correct guesses than the other player, sometimes coming down to one critical tide-turning combination of guesses on a single turn.

I think ESPECIALLY in the Germany-v-Italy matchup, the amount of guessing is very intense. As Italy, you start off in a really bad position where you need a lot of armies and Germany can block you from getting them out into position, and you have to, at some point, make an excellent guess to overcome Germany's starting advantage.

Strategically, in the long run, I think Germany is worse off than Italy because Germany doesn't have a good way to pick up centers behind the line while still getting enough fleets in position to hold back Italy. Italy is so much closer to MAO and can actually use the fleets to take centers while advancing there, but Germany is both further away and has to make even more delay to pick up centers while moving over there. In the long run, this really disfavors Germany. So as Germany, the key, I think is to seize the early-game momentum you have and try to logjam Italy, and punish Italy HARD for trying to make a risky move.

In this game, I think it just came down to that guess on the previous turn - I think if you had outguessed me all around like I described, I would have to play well to recover.

Look back to 1903 Autumn though to see what I'm talking about, how you really had to make the right guesses against me to change the momentum of the game, but I had a lot of room for error in my guesses against you; if I had guessed wrong I wouldn't have been punished nearly as hard as you could be.
02 Jul 18 UTC Autumn, 1905: I guess, in that sense, that this variant is one of the purest. I sense that many six player games include elements which might be boiled down to something other than "they outguessed me, on balance". Do you think you are better at the full game or one on one?
03 Jul 18 UTC Autumn, 1905: I am definitely much less good at the original, classic game than any other variant - because that's a press game. I'm much less experienced with that and I've seen a lot of stuff that blows my mind.

As far as classic GUNBOAT games go compared to 1v1, it's really hard to say because it's hard to compare. If you look at my rankings on this website, my best is glassic gunboat though.

I've been working on my own game for about 6 months now that's entirely a guessing game, INTENDED to be a 1v1 game from the start. I think you may get a kick out of it. Also we should play Yomi sometime.
03 Jul 18 UTC Autumn, 1905: We most definitely should.

Start Backward Open large map Forward End

Germany
swordsman3003 (10160 D (G))
Won. Bet: 5 D, won: 5 D
20 supply-centers, 15 units
Italy
kbchitown (50 D)
Survived. Bet: 5 D
11 supply-centers, 10 units
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